Commentary

Executive Summary Security Realignments: The second Trump term will likely strain traditional alliances. In Europe, NATO’s cohesion could be undermined by U.S. demands for burden-sharing and hints of disengagement, prompting the EU to bolster...

Key Takeaways EU’s Strategic Response to Trump’s Policies: Trump's second-term "America First" agenda and confrontational stance toward European allies have forced the European Union to reconsider traditional alliances and strategically deepen...

The second Trump administration has ushered in a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, particularly in its approach to Russia. By deprioritizing full support for Ukraine and seeking a diplomatic resolution with Moscow, Trump’s...

Key Takeaways The US is stepping back from European security: For the first time in decades, Washington has signaled that Europe must assume primary responsibility for its own defense, reshaping NATO and altering the continent’s security...

Key Takeaways: Strategic Motives: Trump’s tariffs, aimed at reducing reliance on China and boosting domestic industry, mark a return to protectionism with broader economic and political implications. While the administration frames tariffs as a...

Key Takeaways Transatlantic Turbulence: The return of Donald Trump as U.S. president signals renewed challenges to U.S.-EU relations, including protectionist trade policies, skepticism toward NATO, unpredictable approaches to the Ukraine...

Key Takeaways A Historic Turning Point: The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime ends over five decades of authoritarian rule in Syria and opens the door to a new era of hope and uncertainty for the nation and the broader Middle East. The...

Key Takeaways: Hawkish Cabinet Appointments: President-elect Donald Trump has appointed a predominantly hawkish group of individuals to key cabinet positions, signaling a strategic pivot toward a more confrontational U.S. policy on China. Marco...

Key Takeaways Economic Competition: Trump is expected to bring back tariffs on China, pushing for economic independence. This could disrupt supply chains and impact economies across Asia. Tech Rivalry: The U.S.-China tech competition is likely...

Key Takeaways Ambitious Expansion and Global Influence: The 2024 BRICS Summit underscores the bloc's ambition to challenge the Western-led global system by advocating a more equitable and multipolar world order. The inclusion of 13 new partner...

Introduction The Global Strategic Trends Out to 2055  (GST7) report, published by the UK Ministry of Defence's Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), presents an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical, economic, and societal...

Key Takeaways  Financial Commitment: China pledged $50 billion in financial support over the next three years, signalling a shift from large-scale infrastructure projects to more diversified investments in green energy, industry, and digital infrastructure. Green...

In early May of 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping undertook a significant diplomatic visit to Europe, the first since the global pandemic began. His five-day itinerary included visits to France, Serbia, and Hungary. Each stop on the tour was imbued with meaning and...

The National People's Congress (NPC) of China functions as the paramount organ of state authority, operating as a single-chamber legislature endowed with extensive capabilities, including amending the Constitution, legislating, supervising governmental activities, and...

The appointment of Admiral Dong Jun as the People's Republic of China's (PRC) Minister of National Defense represents a critical juncture in the nation's military leadership and strategic direction. Dong's ascension to this role, notable for being the first naval...

Introduction At the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in San Francisco, a significant meeting took place, drawing considerable attention in the realm of international politics. This was the dialogue between President Joe Biden of the United States and...

The Middle East, a region rich in energy resources, is strategically important for global powers. As the world's largest oil importer, China has steadily increased its influence in the area. This influence is driven by China's energy needs and diplomatic efforts, as...

Introduction Following World War II (WWII), just as Germany did, Japan disarmed itself. Since then, the country has prioritized economic development over political and military disputes, and it has determined a foreign policy strategy that fosters stability in its...

Introduction The war on Ukraine has clearly transformed the political environment in Europe, but it has also divided the world. In this turbulent time, India has positioned itself as neutral, balancing between Russia and the West. While India has not officially...

Strengthening his position in the Congress after winning the elections for the third time, Xi Jinping raised the Taiwan issue in the Congress. His harsh words and constitutional amendments have stoked up fears of a large-scale military operation against Taiwan. A...

Background In 2011, the Jasmine revolution brought Tunisia’s president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali to fall and ended an entrenched dictatorship. The momentum further spread to other countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and initiated a protest movement...

Background On August 2, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a controversial visit to Taiwan while on a tour in Asia to show support for US Allies. At the beginning of her trip in Singapore on July 31, there was no mention of a visit to Taiwan. However, speculations...

While the discussions and musings on “strategic autonomy” after Brexit flooded corridors of EU, the brutal invasion of Ukraine by Russia brought back memories of Cold War. The war unleashed all sorts of strategic thinking at EU, NATO and European capitals. Naturally,...

On April 24 2022, the second round of the French presidential elections took place with a 28% vote abstention rate.[1] In the first round of the elections, this rate was even lower, at 26.31%. The strong competition between France's two historical parties goes a long...

The ongoing Russian war on Ukraine has abruptly transformed the political landscape in not only Europe, but also the world. In Scandinavia, political tensions are high as both Finland and Sweden are discussing the future of their security policies and potentially...

A bit of a History The EU’s first strategy document, European Security Strategy, dates back to 2003, in the wake of the longstanding Cold War. Penned at a time of enormous hope, prosperity and an absence of a global rival, the EU’s self-confidence is reflected...

War in Ukraine changed the security and defence perception in Europe drastically. Twenty-three years after the war in Kosovo, Europe witnessed another war inside its borders, this time between much more capable sides and with far-reaching effects. The war between the...

Europe and the Western World has been experiencing a big new wakeup call after Russian Armed Forces initiated its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.  Putin announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine with “no intention to...

Sanctions have been considered by international relations scholars as states mechanisms to influence other governments on their policies. While the traditional view on sanctions implemented by J. Galtung and the Oslo Institute portrays sanctions as an instrument to...

On 14 May 2021, China became the second country to have successfully landed a rover on Mars after its Zhurong spacecraft touched down on the surface of the red planet. Zhurong (祝融), carrying the name of the “god of fire” in ancient Chinese mythology, was the sixth...

The US policy toward China has come under the spotlight after the first high-level talks between the two countries in Alaska. This was the first serious US contact with the country since election of President Biden. On January 20, 2021, Joe Biden was officially...

The one-China principle asserts that there is only one sovereign state under the name of ‘China’. Both People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC or Taiwan) claim that sovereignty should belong to one power. The roots of the principle go back to...

The Trump presidency has set into motion the geostrategic and political-economic dynamics that have begun to morph the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) into Major Power Warfare— or what the US State Department euphemistically calls Great Power Competition. Since the...

After seven long months, during which the Lebanese went through a popular uprising, a COVID 19 pandemic, a worsening economic and financial crisis, currency devaluation, and a large explosion that destroyed parts of Beirut, the government of Hassan Diab has resigned....

Lebanese ministers and MPs have been resigning in drove following the tragic explosion in the port of Beirut, and the subsequent popular anger against the whole political class. On Saturday a huge demonstration took place, and the following day popular movement...

The current multifaceted crisis engulfing Lebanon has started a very dangerous political and economic shift that could have a disastrous effect on Lebanon’s Liberal economic model in the long run. Indeed, the liberal model, focusing on personal freedoms,...

China is gradually turning into a country that closes the shutters. There is a giant in front of us and walls grow in front of it as it grows. We will not be able to see what is happening behind the wall; there is not much left, except for a tiny ray leaking out. Just...

Chinese scholars have always considered the EU to be destined for destruction; while considering NATO to be unnecessary. According to them the biggest problem of the EU is its failure to achieve political unification. On the other hand, conditions during the cold war,...

The whole world is trying to find out how to fight against the new coronavirus. The level of anxiety increases as the virus' spreading speed increases. As Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, stated humanity is facing the biggest disaster since World War II. Curfews are...

February 29, 2020 is marked as one of the most important dates in the recent history of Afghanistan. After two decades of turmoil that claimed the lives of approximately 157,000 people (of more than 43,000 are civilians and 4,000 are coalition soldiers (nearly 2,500...

The reemergence of the Canal Istanbul project brought some discussions on the Montreux Straits Convention on the agenda. The Treaty of Lausanne and Montreux Straits Convention were proof of the existence of the newly established Republic of Turkey and are a symbol of...

Prime Minister Hassan Diab government has finally won the parliament’s confidence vote this Tuesday, with one of the lowest scores in the modern history of Lebanon, managing only 63 votes out of 128. The day witnessed massive popular protests, that tried to derail the...

56th Munich Security Conference (MSC) took place between 14-16 February 2020. Regarded as Davos of foreign and security policy circles, MSC serves as a platform to exchange ideas for high-profile decision-makers all over the world. Traditionally, a report is published...

Afghanistan is struck by severe armed violence and political impasse. Peace talks are seemingly going nowhere, circling around requests for; a reduction in violence by the U.S. (which has never happened), a peace deal between the U.S. and the Taliban before Taliban...

Merkel highlighted two main results of the Berlin Conference; the first one is continuation of a fragile truce, which could turn into a permanent cease-fire through military committee negotiations of the warring factions and the second one is the re-commitment of the...

Never-ending tension in the Middle East escalated once again when the U.S. killed a crucial Iranian military figure, Qasem Soleimani, in Iraq months before the U.S. presidential election. Soleimani’s death, of course, outraged the Iranian government, not only because...

A qaytusha attack killed one US contractor on an Iraqi base in Kirkuk on 27 December. To reciprocate, the US bombed three sites in Iraq and Syria belonging of Kataib Hezbollah, a designated terrorist group which US holds responsible. As retaliation to this US action...

The matter of the possible ‘closure’ of the Incirlik base, which has always been on the agenda in every turbulent period in Turkish-American relations, has come up once again in the previous days. This time, the new turbulent period started with the Turkish...

When Turkey, while it was a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in 2010, voted “NO” to the resolution to impose sanctions on Iran, western media brought the discussion about Turkey changing its axis, once again. Such talks were outtalked...

In spite the geopolitical escalation and fiery rhetoric between the West and Iran in recent weeks, there are indications that lines of communications remain active with some hope of a window of opportunity opening to a new phase of negotiations and some sort of...

The U.S has many times voiced concerns over the Europeans' will to develop a strategic autonomy in recent years. Arguably, the different defence initiatives the EU is undertaking could undermine NATO’s strength by creating duplications and discrimination between...

The President of the United States of America (USA) Donald Trump has said that he wants to buy Greenland Island. This request surprised both the autonomous administration of Greenland and Denmark. Upon the reactions from both sides, Trump canceled the official visit...

It was clear from the outset that this month’s Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) would be one of the longest as stated by the High Representative/Vice President (HR/VP) Federica Mogherini. The agenda was full, including controversial items like Joint Comprehensive Plan of...

If the news from Doha is true, peace is closer than ever. At 29 Jun 2019, the U.S. and the Taliban came together for the seventh round of discussions which will hopefully bring an end to the 18-year-long war between U.S.-led coalition and the Taliban. According to the...

Already strained relations between LNA and Turkish Government gradually escalated to an open hostility after statements and actions from both sides since Friday. This means a new crisis in the MENA, which is already on tenterhooks with current Iran-USA tension. As a...

Fatih Celenay*, Onur Sultan** Introduction International society has been watching a duel of words and actions between Iran and US since May 2018 when President Trump declared the US would unilaterally withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or...

NATO responded to Russian intervention in Ukraine by launching several initiatives in multiple domains. One of them is the NATO Readiness Initiative. As part of a broad deterrence and defence related measures,  Allies will make available ‘additional 30 major naval...

The rivalry between British and Russian Empires over the control of Afghanistan named as “the Great Game”. Some 190 years after, Afghan soil witnesses a similar “game” being played by global and regional actors. This landlocked country, lying at the centre of the...

The transatlantic security and defense debate has been challenged by a recurring paradox over the past decade: Europeans are expected to take on more responsibility for their own defense and step up their defense investment, yet there is still an expectation from the...

According to Montreux Convention, Black Sea littoral states have the right to use the Turkish Straits if the submarines have been constructed, purchased or sent for repair outside Black Sea with the stipulation that they inform Turkey in advance. In the case of...

Anne Speckhard* & Ardian Shajkovci**   The sound of an explosion echoed through the Green Zone on Sunday (May 19, 2019) night around 9:00 p.m., a reminder that this most secure part of the Iraqi capital is not, in fact, all that safe. The projectile appears...

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and US President Donald Trump's message at the White House during the press conference on March 19 attracted international attention. Particularly in the areas of terrorism, drug and human trafficking, cybercrime and money...

I would like to touch upon the global geopolitical challenge – temporary occupation of Crimea that will be discussed in the framework of today’s conference. Since beginning of the so-called Referendum in Crimea in March 2014 which fully contradicted with the...

Two main dynamics are at work in the international level. The first is the state-centred “great power dynamics”. And the second is pluralist “global governance” in which a plethora of different actors exist alongside states. A main feature of the latter, non-state...

As any observer can notice, all great and regional powers are building up their weapons arsenals. Some are proud of it and like to show it both to the outside world and to their own people like Putin’s Russia or Kim Jong Un’s North Korea, and also Trump; others do it...

  There is a revolution in progress that is shifting responsibility for governance and sovereignty away from the state to cities. This revolution even has a name: the fourth industrial revolution. In many parts of the world, cities are growing exponentially and...

Defence Ministers of NATO members discussed pressing security challenges in Brussels between 13-15 February 2019, prior to annual Munich Security Conference. Defence Minister of the Republic of North Macedonia Radmila Sekerinska, attended NATO defence ministerial...

“Make America Great Again” is attributed to the present US President Donald Trump. He certainly has been a user of this quote or phrase since 2012 if not earlier. In the 2015 reissue of his 2011 book, the subtitle read “Make America Great Again”. But by no means, he...

Becoming a global power depends on domination in the oceans and seas. Dominating the seas and oceans means having the strategic advantage militarily and controlling economically significant sea lines of communication. The USA, which is a global or hegemonic power,...

The far-right parties are not recent phenomena in the old continent. Following the catastrophe of the second world war, mainly caused by the far-right, nationalist and fascist parties, it became a practice, maybe with some exceptions, not to have them in...

  What happened? On Sunday, Russian Coast Guard vessels fired at and detained two Ukrainian small armed boats and a tugboat with their crews (leaving a number of Ukrainian crews wounded) off the Crimean coast on their way from Odesa to Mariupol Port. Russia...

The negotiators have finally reached an agreement on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on 14 November after months of hectic bargaining. The development hit the headlines and spread over the social media. Yet, is it really over? Do we know what has happened and what...

EU in Focus: Informal Salzburg Summit Informal meeting of heads of state or government took place in Salzburg on 19-20 September 2018 to discuss internal security, migration and Brexit. The heads of state or government met for an informal working dinner on migration...

States with small and medium levels of power have a limited range of strategic responses available when confronted with an aggressive superpower. They can prepare to confront the superpower (balance) by shoring up their capabilities or seeking alliances. They can...

Gynmich took place in Vienna on 29-31 August 2018, as usual first day with Informal meeting of defense ministers and second-day with Informal meeting of foreign affairs ministers. The Informal meeting of defense ministers focused on the EU’s security and defense...