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Crossroads of Power: Navigating the 2024 US Election’s Impact on Transatlantic Relations

by Ilaria Gallo

April 09, 2024 | 17 min read

1. Introduction

2024 takes on an influential character as the electoral process is underway in more than 80 nations, including the US, Mexico, India, Russia, South Africa, Venezuela, and Sudan. The results of these elections are evidently significant for the countries themselves. But beyond that for the globe as the positions of the new leaders will factor into the economic stability, human rights status, and international relations in our globalized world.

One of those 80 nations, the United States (US), embarks on the intricate journey of selecting its next leader through the presidential election process. The unfolding electoral saga captivates the attention of Americans and the global community alike. The 2024 presidential election transcends a mere competition between political contenders; it stands as a crossroads where divergent visions for America’s trajectory intersect.

Whether it signifies a continuation of the policies under the Biden administration or a return to a Trump presidency, the ramifications reach far beyond the US borders. For the European Union, a vital player in the global arena, the outcome of the upcoming election holds profound implications. The EU finds itself on the brink of navigating a new phase of transatlantic relations, where the decisions made by American voters will shape trade agreements, initiatives on climate action, security partnerships, and diplomatic ties. As the world traverses the complexities of multifold hypothetical scenarios, for the EU, one thing remains clear: the 2024 US presidential election is not just about choosing a leader; it is about defining the future course of transatlantic cooperation, forging partnerships rooted in shared values, and navigating the ever-evolving landscape of global geopolitics.

The commentary explores the complexities and implications of the 2024 United States presidential election on transatlantic relations, mainly focusing on the European Union’s strategic positioning. The commentary has been structured into distinct sections, each dedicated to providing an exhaustive analysis of the 2024 US Presidential Election and its profound implications on transatlantic relations. At the outset, it delves into the profound significance of the 2024 US Presidential Election, both within the confines of the United States and globally. Transitioning into hypothetical scenarios, the policy brief depicts the potential ramifications of a second term for President Biden and ventures into the realm of conjecture regarding President Trump’s re-election. Finally, the commentary offers concrete recommendations for the European Union in navigating the complex post-2024 election landscape.

2.Status of the Nominations

The United States presidential election is a cornerstone of American democracy, unfolding every four years to determine the nation’s leader. Understanding its intricate workings involves delving into a system that combines elements of direct and indirect democracy, resulting in the selection of the President and Vice President of the United States.

At the core of this electoral process lies the Electoral College, a mechanism outlined in the US Constitution. The Electoral College comprises 538 electors, each state being allocated a number equal to its total number of Senators and Representatives in Congress. These electors are the linchpin of the presidential election, tasked with casting their votes for the presidential and vice-presidential candidates on behalf of their respective states. The process culminates on Election Day, 5 November 2024, when American citizens nationwide head to the polls to cast their votes.

Nevertheless, the presidential race isn’t the only thing on the ballot. Concurrently, voters also elect members of Congress – both Senators and Representatives – and various state and local officials. As is well known, the path to the presidency begins long before Election Day. It starts with the nomination process within the two major political parties—the Republican Party and the Democratic Party.

For the Democratic Party, the process begins with primaries and caucuses held in states across the country. These events allow party members to cast their votes for their preferred candidate. The results of these contests determine the number of delegates each candidate receives, with delegates being individuals who represent their state at the party’s national convention.

At the Democratic National Convention, delegates officially vote for their party’s presidential nominee. The candidate who secures a majority of delegates – 2,383 out of the total 4,750 – becomes the party’s official nominee for the presidency.

On the other side of the political spectrum, the Republican Party follows a similar process. Primaries and caucuses are held, delegates are allocated based on the results, and the Republican National Convention is the grand stage for nominating the party’s presidential candidate. After the nominees are officially chosen, the campaign season kicks into high gear, with candidates crisscrossing the nation, participating in debates, and rallying support.

3. Where Are We Now?

The 2024 presidential candidates considered favourites to win are Joe Biden for the Democratic Party and Donald Trump for the Republican Party. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, was also considered before she dropped out of the presidential race, as was Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida.

On Super Tuesday, March 5, voters in 15 states chose Donald Trump and Joe Biden as the presidential candidates. The nominating contests occurred in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. Other primaries will take place during March 2024, for example, in Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi, Washington, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Ohio, Louisiana, and Missouri, until all states have elected their candidates. After Super Tuesday, despite the now partially definitive picture coming out of the polls, the primaries will continue in the missing states. The Republicans will conclude the round on 4 June, voting in South Dakota, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico. For the Democrats, it will continue until 8 June, with voting on the Guam island and the US Virgin Islands territory.

Finally, the last two major events will be the 15-18 July 2024 Republican Convention, at which delegates of the Republican Party of the United States will select the party’s candidates for president and vice president in the 2024 US presidential election. On the other hand, the 2024 Democratic National Convention will be held from 19 to 22 August. During that time, delegates of the Democratic Party will select the party’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

4. What the European Union Can Expect

It is essential to analyse what the parties, Democrats and Republicans, have in common to understand better what the European Union can expect from the two candidates running for the President of the United States of America.

4.1. Foreign Trade

Republicans and Democrats are gravitating towards a redefined vision of the American economy, moving away from traditional neoliberal stances. Historically, Democrats have been sceptical of free trade pacts, citing concerns about protecting environmental and labor standards. However, the deepening rivalry with China and the competition for working-class voters have prompted a convergence of views between the parties.

Republicans have embraced a shift initiated by Trump, who challenged the party’s traditional commitment to free trade in 2016. Trump’s perspective centred on rectifying what he saw as unfair trade agreements, with the US bearing trade deficits while the Allies benefited from the US security assurances.  His administration imposed tariffs broadly and withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), aimed at covering a significant portion of the global economy. Post-Trump, the Republican party continues to advocate for increased government intervention in markets, emphasising the revitalisation of domestic industries and reducing dependence on foreign markets, especially China.

In contrast, the Biden administration has pursued a targeted strategic industrial policy, offering subsidies to domestic industries to maintain a competitive edge and reduce reliance on foreign sources. Key legislative acts such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) exemplify the strategic shift towards reshoring and strengthening domestic industries.

4.2. Military Operations

Both parties are increasingly aligned in their rejection of extensive military interventions abroad, particularly those aimed at nation-building. The Biden administration has notably deprioritised the Middle East, focusing instead on the competition with China and constraints on Russia, as outlined in the US National Security Strategy 2022.

In the War in Gaza, the Biden administration has found itself in a challenging position. Despite losing support among key voters, President Biden’s administration has continued to back Israel’s war on Gaza. This stance has sparked serious reservations among progressives, young voters, and Muslim American voters. The administration has faced criticism, especially after an Israeli military bombing on April 1 killed seven aid workers, including an American, delivering supplies for World Central Kitchen.

The Trump administration, on the other hand, has expressed explicit support for Israel’s war on Gaza. Former President Trump has voiced backing for the hardline government in Tel Aviv, suggesting he supports continuing the assault until “total victory”. Trump’s stance indicates that voters opposed to U.S. support for Israel’s war will face a dilemma in the 2024 presidential election.

President Biden has struggled to articulate a clear American response to the Gaza war, which has contributed to a decline in his approval ratings and support in the primaries. Only 27% of voters approve of his support of Israel in the war, and his unwillingness to challenge Israel or alter armament exports has drawn criticism.

4.3. China as a Strategic Rival

A solid bipartisan consensus exists regarding China’s status as the primary challenge to US national security interests and the global order. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have identified China as the key rival and top foreign policy priority in their respective National Security Strategies. While nuances exist within and between the parties on the nature of the Chinese threat, the ambition to prevail in the US-China strategic rivalry remains a cornerstone of American foreign policy.

Economically, both parties are united in focusing on technological competition with China. The Trump administration imposed significant tariffs on Chinese imports and restricted the export of advanced technologies to China. In a bipartisan effort, Congress expanded the powers of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to scrutinise and block Chinese investments. The Biden administration has built upon these policies, enacting further restrictions under the Foreign Direct Product Rule and emphasising measures to enhance US competitiveness in semiconductors and green technology.

In conclusion, amidst the shifting tides of American politics, areas of bipartisan agreement offer insights into potential trajectories of US foreign policy. From recalibrated trade strategies to shared views on China’s strategic challenge, the next administration—whether Republican or Democratic—will likely navigate a complex global landscape. For the European Union, understanding and adapting to these potential shifts will be essential for maintaining a cohesive and strategic transatlantic relationship.

5.The Impact of a Re-Elected Biden Presidency on the European Union

The European Union stands on the precipice of significant shifts in its relationship with the United States, contingent upon the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. A re-elected Biden administration promises a path of continuity intertwined with notable changes, shaping the landscape of transatlantic cooperation and rivalry.

5.1. Engaging Allies and Tackling Climate Crisis

Since assuming office in January 2021, the Biden administration has taken significant steps to address the pressing issue of climate change, such as rejoining the Paris climate agreement, appointing former Secretary of State John Kerry as the inaugural Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, hosting the Leaders Summit on Climate in 2021, and setting ambitious targets for reducing US greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the administration introduced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a substantial $737 billion climate legislation. The IRA aims to incentivise investment in clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles, batteries, hydrogen, energy storage, and electricity transmission. The legislation also seeks to diversify strategic supply chains away from China, aligning with the administration’s goal of reducing dependence on foreign sources, particularly in critical sectors.

A potential re-election of President Biden would likely see a continuation of these climate-friendly policies. The administration would push for allies and partners to follow America’s lead in adopting similar measures, transforming their economic models towards renewable energy generation and enhanced energy efficiency. The strategic focus on climate-friendly investments and technology competition is driven by the administration’s aim of domestic renewal to better compete with China on the global stage.

5.2. Re-engagement with International Agreements and Alliances

The Biden administration has also made strides in re-engaging with international agreements, aiming to restore America’s leadership role on the global stage. Efforts to re-enter various agreements, such as the Paris Climate Accord, reflect a commitment to multilateral cooperation.

However, challenges persist amidst increased competition with China and ongoing conflicts such as the war in Ukraine. For these reasons, the administration’s approach to these issues has been multifaceted, seeking to balance strategic interests with diplomatic engagement.

Regarding alliances, President Biden emphasises the value of strong partnerships with European, Canadian, and Asian allies. These relationships are crucial for bolstering America’s position as a global leader, particularly in countering the challenges China and Russia pose.

In the context of the current conflict in Gaza, the Biden administration’s handling of the situation has become a significant issue in the 2024 U.S. election. The conflict has added complexity to the administration’s foreign policy agenda, requiring a delicate balance between support for Israel and addressing humanitarian concerns.

The emerging paradigm in U.S.-Israel relations includes members of Congress advocating for a more critical approach, opposing the long-prevailing pro-Israel Middle East policy. The shift may impact bilateral relations, leaving Israel to navigate international challenges without its traditional staunch ally.

Despite these challenges, the Biden administration remains committed to re-engaging with international institutions, aiming to restore U.S. leadership, and it starkly contrasts the scepticism and reluctance exhibited during the Trump era, signalling a renewed focus on diplomacy and cooperation on the global stage.

5.3. NATO And Support for Ukraine

A potential second term for President Biden is expected to emphasise continued support for NATO. Throughout his presidency, Biden has consistently demonstrated unwavering backing for the alliance, highlighting the importance of “reinvigorating” key US alliances, particularly in response to challenges posed by Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

Regarding Ukraine specifically, the Biden administration has shown a firm commitment to providing military and humanitarian support. His dedication underscores the administration’s stance on upholding Ukraine’s sovereignty and security amidst ongoing tensions and conflicts.

However, the upcoming congressional elections will play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of US support for Ukraine. The outcome of these elections will determine the level of resources and assistance the administration can allocate to addressing the Ukraine situation. As such, the results of the congressional races will have significant implications for the Biden administration’s foreign policy agenda in the region.

5.4. China

In his first term, Biden continued the tough stance on China initiated by the Trump administration. It included maintaining tariffs on Chinese imports, mainly targeting sectors linked to national security and intellectual property.

The second term will likely bolster efforts to reduce US dependency on Chinese supply chains. Initiatives to restore critical industries, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, are expected to continue. The administration will likely push for increased domestic production to enhance economic resilience and reduce vulnerabilities to disruptions in the global market.

Navigating these potential shifts requires careful calibration of the European Union’s strategic positioning. A second Biden term offers continuity but demands greater alignment and contributions.

However, a re-elected Biden administration will also place greater expectations on the EU. The US will likely seek alignment on the strategic industrial policy concerning China and demand increased European contributions to security matters, notably in Ukraine. The push aims to free up US military resources for the Indo-Pacific region, underscoring the evolving dynamics of global power play.

6.The Impact of a Re-Elected Trump Presidency on the European Union

The European Union faces a pivotal moment of anticipation and strategising as the spectre of a re-elected Trump presidency looms over transatlantic relations. Drawing from the contours of American politics and foreign policy, EU leaders must prepare for potential shifts and challenges that may arise.

A future Republican president would likely adopt a more unilateral stance towards China, potentially pressuring European allies to align with US priorities.

6.1. Unilateralism and Transactional Relations with a Republican Presidency

Regarding international relations, the previous “America First” policy under Trump saw the US withdraw from numerous global organisations and agreements, contributing to the erosion of global institutions. In contrast to a more multilateral approach, a Republican administration is unlikely to prioritise regaining influence in these arenas. Instead, the focus would shift towards negotiating new bilateral or regional agreements, emphasising deal-making and the potential for bilateral negotiations.

In terms of alliances, a second Trump administration might neglect efforts to strengthen traditional US alliances, preferring a more transactional approach. Trump openly criticised NATO allies, calling for increased defence spending and questioning the alliance’s value. Additionally, a focus could be on maintaining US military advantage while shunning arms control negotiations.

6.2. NATO

If Trump were to return to power, the fate of US military assistance to Kyiv, Ukraine, would become uncertain. Trump, known for his scepticism towards NATO and traditional alliances, would likely neglect and undermine the alliance. He might prioritise bilateral and transactional cooperation over NATO’s collective security framework. As a result, he might push for a decrease in US participation in NATO while applying pressure on European partners to dramatically increase their military spending.

While Trump may be unable to withdraw the US from NATO outright, as Congress approved a bill barring any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO, he could undermine its effectiveness through neglect and unilateral actions. The approach might also involve questioning the alliance’s value and US commitments. Trump’s return could further strain relations with NATO allies, especially those not meeting his demands for increased defence spending.

6.3. Ukraine Conflict

In a second term, a Trump administration would likely depart from the current US policy of support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Trump has previously hinted at a more transactional approach, suggesting that he could negotiate a quick settlement to the conflict.

The 45th US President has previously indicated frustration with US involvement in foreign conflicts, and his administration might push for a swift resolution to the Ukraine conflict, even if it means accepting compromises that could be detrimental to Ukraine’s interests.

6.4. Impact on Climate Policies and Energy

In the potential second term of a Trump presidency, there is a high likelihood of a shift in policy towards climate change, particularly concerning fossil fuels. Over the past decade, the American energy sector has seen significant advancements due to technologies like shale gas and offshore drilling. The transformation has led the US to become the world’s top producer and exporter of oil and gas.

Given the broad support for such measures within the party base, a Republican administration in 2025 is expected to renew Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies, and it could involve deregulation favouring the oil and gas industry, issuing more drilling permits, dismantling the Environmental Protection Agency, and offering tax incentives to fossil fuel companies. Internationally, a Republican White House would likely align with fossil fuel producers, promoting exports to new partners in the global south and Europe.

6.5. China

In a hypothetical second term for President Trump, his foreign policy towards China is expected to be more aggressive and assertive. Building upon his first-term policies, which were characterized by trade disputes and strategic rivalry, Trump’s second term would likely intensify efforts to counter China’s growing influence on the global stage.

7. Challenges and Preparations for the European Union

The potential scenario presents multifaceted challenges for the European Union. The EU must brace for a more transactional and unpredictable relationship with the US, emphasising the need for strategic autonomy in crucial policy areas. It includes bolstering its strategic industrial policy towards China, preparing for shifts in military dynamics, and navigating the complexities of climate diplomacy without US support.

In conclusion, EU leaders must be prepared to navigate a landscape of unilateralism, transactional diplomacy and changes in global priorities. Strategic autonomy, alignment on critical issues, and readiness to assert European interests will be crucial as the EU charts its course in the face of a transatlantic relationship that a second Trump administration could potentially alter.

8. Who Is Leading?

The current polls are shaped by many dynamics, such as concerns about Joe Biden’s age, the rising cost of living, the War in Gaza, and Trump’s criminal cases. These concerns could work for Trump, who aims to become the first individual to return to the White House after an absence since the 19th century, or for US President Biden. In addition, Trump faces the challenge of winning over moderate Republicans who voted against him in the primaries.

One of the central issues of the election cycle is immigration, especially in the context of a growing crisis at the border with Mexico. Republicans have criticised Biden for overseeing the increase in illegal immigration, while Trump has intensified his attacks on this front. In addition, the state of democracy itself has emerged as a significant political concern, with left-wing fears about the potential re-election of an authoritarian Trump countered by Republican arguments that the Biden administration is politicising the judiciary against the former president. In addition, inflation remains a critical issue, with the rising cost of living despite a strong economy, which could hurt Biden’s position in the long run.

Polls also indicate that most voters disapprove of Joe Biden, and about two-thirds of Americans express concerns about his age, particularly his ability to remain in the White House beyond next year. Specifically, the President is losing support among vital Democratic voters, including young liberals, black voters and Muslims concerned about Gaza.

Although his opponent, on the other hand, has faced four criminal indictments, including charges of election interference and mishandling confidential documents, Trump’s poll numbers have remained essentially unchanged. His recent appearance in a $250 million civil fraud trial in New York, which threatens his business empire, has not significantly altered his standing among supporters.

The primaries highlighted Biden’s and Trump’s dominance, with both candidates winning in almost all states with limited opposition. Swing states, crucial in determining election outcomes, are at the centre of attention. States like Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina are watched closely due to their history of switching between parties and slim margins of victory.

Unexpectedly, Georgia, traditionally Republican, saw Mr. Biden win by a narrow margin in the last election, making it a crucial battleground. With its diverse and unpredictable population, Florida holds significant electoral college votes and has swung between parties in recent elections. Then, Michigan’s electoral influence remains consequential despite economic challenges and population decline. The state has shifted between Democrat and Republican in recent elections, and polling shows a close contest between the candidates. In addition, Arizona, historically Republican, leaned towards Mr. Biden in 2020, with a small margin of victory. Pennsylvania’s history of switching between parties was evident in recent elections, with narrow margins of victory. Polls indicate a close race between the candidates as the state remains a battleground. North Carolina, typically Republican-leaning, saw a tighter contest in 2020, with Mr. Biden narrowing the margin. Democrats see an opportunity to make gains in this state. In conclusion, these swing states hold immense significance with the election approaching. Each candidate vying for their crucial electoral votes could ultimately determine the next occupant of the White House.

At this point in the election process, monitoring the polls, which favour a second re-election for Trump, is essential. According to the Telegraph UK, the latest polls updated on 26 March indicate that Donald Trump has taken a slight lead in the upcoming US election, particularly in key swing states that could prove decisive for securing the White House in November. Furthermore, the Five ThirtyEight Interactives project, which collects the latest polls conducted by various newspapers, consultancy agencies, and think tanks, shows that Trump, as indicated in 22 polls conducted from 13 to 24 March, is ahead of Biden. However, it should be noted that the Republican candidate’s lead never deviates by more than five points from the Democratic candidate.

However, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that U.S. President Joe Biden was leading Donald Trump by just a single percentage point heading into the November presidential election. The arrow lead came as both candidates garnered enough support from their respective parties to secure spots on the ballot.

According to the one-week poll, which concluded on 13 March, 39% of registered voters indicated they would vote for Biden, the Democratic candidate, if the election were held today. In comparison, 38% chose the Republican former President Trump. Biden’s lead fell within the poll’s margin of error of 1.8 %. The survey also highlighted many undecided voters, with 11% expressing support for other candidates, 5% stating they would not vote, and 7% indicating they were unsure or declined to answer. The poll also showed that many voters are not enthusiastic about either Trump or Biden. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr garnered support from 15% of registered voters in the survey, should he appear as a third candidate on the ballot.

9. Conclusion and Strategic Foresight

The unfolding saga of the 2024 United States presidential election sets the stage for a captivating journey toward selecting the nation’s next leader. As Super Tuesday fades into the rearview mirror and the primaries continue their march across the country, the spotlight remains fixed on the evolving landscape of American politics.

Amidst the flurry of campaign trails, debates, and delegate counts, the road to the nominations winds through a complex tapestry of primaries and conventions. With each passing contest, the Democratic and Republican parties edge closer to officially anointing their presidential candidates.

Yet, beyond the United States’ borders, the world watches keenly. For the European Union and the global community, the outcome of this election holds profound implications. The next administration’s decisions will resonate far beyond American shores, from trade relations to climate policies, strategic alliances, and geopolitical tensions.

As the international community assesses the potential impacts of a re-elected Biden presidency or a return of Trump to the White House, one thing remains clear: the intricate dance of international diplomacy and global leadership is inextricably linked to the outcome of this election.

The 2024 US presidential election, whether it leads to a re-elected Biden or a return of Trump, will significantly impact transatlantic relations. A renewed Biden administration will likely prioritise strengthening ties with EU member states, potentially revitalising cooperation on critical issues such as climate change and democratic values. Conversely, a Trump re-election could bring a more transactional and unpredictable approach, prompting the EU to brace for trade negotiations and global cooperation challenges.

Regarding trade, a Biden administration would focus on multilateral agreements like the TTP, fostering economic cooperation between the EU and the US. On the other hand, a Trump win might lead to continued trade tensions, requiring the EU to defend its interests and seek alternative cooperation avenues. Moreover, on a vital issue such as climate action, a re-elected Biden administration would align with global efforts by rejoining agreements like the Paris Agreement, offering collaboration opportunities for the EU. At the same time, Trump’s return would mean a departure from global climate initiatives, prompting the EU to take a leading role in climate action.

The potential impact of the U.S. election outcome on conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine is a complex issue that requires careful consideration.

Regarding the conflict in Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian situation, a re-elected Biden administration is likely to continue supporting a two-state solution, aligning with the stance of the European Union and many other international actors. The approach aims to create separate, independent states for Israelis and Palestinians, with defined borders and mutual recognition. Such a stance emphasises diplomacy, negotiations, and a commitment to international law.

On the other hand, if former President Trump were to return to office, his administration’s policies might embolden Israeli actions and complicate peace efforts. During his term, Trump took several actions that favoured Israel, such as recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the U.S. embassy there, as well as unveiling a peace plan that was seen by many as heavily favouring Israeli interests. A return of Trump to the presidency could mean continuing these policies, which may not align with the aspirations of a two-state solution supported by the EU and others.

The implications of a Biden versus Trump presidency for the conflict in Ukraine are also nuanced. President Biden has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine, advocating for its territorial integrity and providing military aid to counter Russian aggression. A re-elected Biden administration would likely continue this stance, which emphasises supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and pushing back against Russian influence in the region.

In contrast, former President Trump’s approach to Ukraine was more complicated. While his administration did provide military aid to Ukraine, Trump’s relationship with Ukrainian officials and his handling of aid disbursement was subject to controversy and an impeachment inquiry. A return of Trump to the presidency might bring uncertainty to Ukraine’s situation, with questions about the level of support and engagement from the U.S. government.

Regarding NATO and security, a Biden win would reaffirm US support, paving the way for enhanced cooperation. At the same time, Trump’s return might demand more from European allies, urging the EU to bolster its security capabilities.

In conclusion, the EU must strategically prepare for potential outcomes of the 2024 US election, understanding the impact on transatlantic relations, trade, climate action, and conflicts. By forging partnerships with like-minded nations, the EU can assert its role in global diplomacy, security, and economic stability, shaping a more prosperous and sustainable global community. The decisions made in the coming months will define the future of international relationships and policies beyond American shores.