Key Takeaways

EU’s Strategic Response to Trump’s Policies:

Trump’s second-term “America First” agenda and confrontational stance toward European allies have forced the European Union to reconsider traditional alliances and strategically deepen its partnership with India.

Economic Cooperation as a Necessity:

Amid heightened protectionism from the U.S. and economic coercion from China, both India and the EU have renewed their efforts to finalize a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, aiming to diversify markets and reduce strategic vulnerabilities.

Balancing China’s Influence:

Growing concerns over China’s geopolitical assertiveness have prompted greater alignment between India and the EU, reflected in joint infrastructure initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), offering a democratic alternative to China’s Belt and Road.

Navigating the Russia Challenge:

Divergent views on Russia’s aggression in Ukraine represent a significant but manageable challenge. While India’s historical ties to Moscow complicate EU-India alignment, this friction underscores the importance of nuanced diplomacy rather than outright divergence.

Diplomatic and Institutional Resilience:

Sustaining this strengthened partnership requires careful handling of sensitive issues, including regulatory alignment, trade standards, and differing geopolitical perspectives. Institutional frameworks and high-level diplomacy are essential for overcoming these barriers.

Long-Term Geopolitical Significance:

Despite challenges, Trump’s era has unintentionally reinforced the strategic rationale underpinning India-EU relations, positioning their partnership as a central pillar in maintaining a balanced, rules-based international order beyond current disruptions.

Introduction

Under Donald Trump’s second-term “America First” policies, global geopolitics have shifted toward greater competition and uncertainty. Trump’s confrontational approach toward Europe – from tariff threats to open skepticism of NATO and the EU – has strained transatlantic ties. Europe can no longer assume the United States will serve as its reliable protector or partner, as the U.S. under Trump has adopted a more transactional, inward-looking stance. This crisis in transatlantic relations has forced the European Union (EU) to seek new partnerships to uphold the international order and its own strategic interests. In this context, India has emerged as a critical partner for the EU – a large democracy with a fast-growing economy and increasing global influence. Both Brussels and New Delhi see an opportunity to hedge against a capricious America and cooperate in a multipolar world order. India’s size, economic growth, and shared commitment to democratic governance give it strong appeal as the EU looks to diversify its alliances. Likewise, India is eager to deepen ties with Europe as a counterbalance, pursuing a “multi-alignment” strategy to expand its geopolitical options amid U.S. unpredictability. In short, Trump’s second-term policies have accelerated a strategic convergence between the EU and India, making their partnership more important than ever in a shifting global order.

Historical Context of India-EU Relations

India-EU relations have historically progressed slowly, characterized more by unrealized potential than by breakthroughs. The first India-EU summit was held in 2000, and in 2004 the two sides agreed to a Strategic Partnership, but over the next two decades momentum remained tepid. Summits were intended to occur annually but often faced long gaps – only about 15 top-level meetings took place in twenty-five years, with delays due to scheduling issues or political irritants. For example, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi initially kept Brussels at arm’s length after 2014, bristling at European Parliament criticisms on human rights, and instead favored bilateral ties with select EU member states (such as France and Germany) over EU-wide engagement. Despite this slow start, several milestones laid groundwork for closer ties. In 2007, India and the EU launched negotiations for a broad-based Free Trade Agreement, though talks quickly ran into disagreements and stalled in 2013 due to a lack of political will. Another turning point came as geopolitical dynamics evolved: by the late 2010s, the EU grew increasingly concerned about China’s rise and began to “rediscover” India as a neglected partner, a sentiment India reciprocated amid shared unease about Beijing’s power. This convergence led to new strategic documents – notably the “India-EU Strategic Partnership: A Roadmap to 2025” adopted in 2020 (providing a five-year blueprint for cooperation), and the EU’s own Indo-Pacific strategy in 2021, which highlighted India’s role in the region. After years of “languor” in the relationship, by the early 2020s both sides showed renewed interest in invigorating ties. Negotiations for the trade deal were rebooted in 2022, and high-level dialogues on security, climate, and technology were initiated. In sum, past India-EU engagement was often halting, but a foundation of strategic partnership and shared interests was established – setting the stage for the accelerated cooperation seen under the pressures of Trump’s second term.

Economic Cooperation and Trade Relations

Trade and FTA Negotiations: Economic ties between India and the EU have become increasingly vital as both seek growth and resilience amid U.S. protectionism and China’s dominance in supply chains. The EU is currently India’s largest trading partner, accounting for €124 billion in goods trade in 2023 (about 12% of India’s total trade) and nearly €60 billion in services. Bilateral trade has almost doubled in the past decade, growing ~90% over that period. Yet a long-sought India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has remained elusive. Talks on an FTA began in 2007, stalled in 2013 over significant discrepancies in areas like agriculture, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals, and only resumed in 2021 after an eight-year hiatus. Now, with transatlantic trade tensions rising under Trump, both New Delhi and Brussels have a new impetus to clinch a deal. In early 2025 they set, for the first time, a deadline to finalize the FTA by year-end, aiming to conclude the protracted negotiations at last. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called it potentially “the largest deal of its kind anywhere in the world,” stressing that an agreement would help mitigate the economic risks of global fragmentation and tariff wars. Indeed, the push to seal the pact comes “as both India and the EU look to limit the impact of increasing fragmentation, protectionism and trade tariffs around the world”, in von der Leyen’s words. Trump’s tariff hikes on allies have underscored the urgency: India and the EU explicitly want to “soften the effect of tariff increases from the United States” by enhancing their own trade cooperation.

Trade Volume and Key Sectors: The robust trade relationship spans a variety of sectors. The EU is a major market for Indian pharmaceuticals, textiles, IT services, machinery, and chemicals, while India imports high-end manufactured goods, transport equipment, and medical devices from Europe. Services trade is also significant – in 2023, two-way services trade neared €60 billion, with digital services (IT and IT-enabled services) comprising about one-third. This reflects India’s strengths in technology and back-office services and Europe’s demand for IT talent. However, market access frictions remain in key sectors. The FTA talks have faltered repeatedly over European concerns about India’s tariffs and investment barriers in sectors like automobiles and wine, and India’s demands for freer movement of its professionals and recognition of its pharmaceutical standards. India is known as one of the world’s most protected large markets – a point Trump himself seized on, quipping that “Indian tariffs are among the highest in the world” while vowing to impose reciprocal U.S. tariffs. Any trade pact would require New Delhi to make major concessions to lower these barriers. Recent statements suggest both sides are now willing to show flexibility, given the shared strategic interest in a deal. Modi and von der Leyen have tasked negotiators to “elevate and accelerate” the partnership, recognizing that “we both stand to gain from a world of cooperation and working together” rather than one of isolationism”.

Supply Chain Diversification: Trump’s “America First” policies and tariffs, coupled with the disruptions of the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, have reinforced the need for diversified supply chains. Here, India is positioning itself as an alternative supply chain partner for Europe amid concerns about overreliance on China. The EU’s recent strategic focus on “de-risking” supply lines away from China aligns with India’s ambitions to attract manufacturing and investment. A European report on competitiveness urged reducing dependencies on China, an approach that “should be at the heart of a new EU partnership with India”, since Europe seeks to reduce dependencies while India seeks to move up the supply chain. European companies in sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy have been encouraged by both governments to consider India as a production base. New Delhi, for its part, has rolled out initiatives like “Make in India” and production-linked incentives to lure manufacturers pivoting from China. There is evidence of progress: India has already become a leading global supplier of generic medicines, and it is expanding capacity in electronics assembly, green tech, and textiles in anticipation of Western firms’ “China+1” strategies. Both the EU and India share concerns about China’s trade practices and coercive use of economic power, reinforcing their interest in closer economic ties with each other. By teaming up, they hope to make their economies more resilient to external shocks – managing U.S. tariff risks on one side and China’s dominance on the other – while unlocking new growth through trade and investment cooperation. In short, economics is a driving force in the India-EU rapprochement: each sees the other as a vast market and a strategic counter-weight in an era of trade protectionism and supply chain recalibration.

Political and Diplomatic Engagement

Shared Values and Multilateral Outlook: As the world’s largest democracies (the EU collectively and India), both share a basic commitment to democratic institutions, pluralism, and a rules-based international order. This common ground has taken on new significance under Trump’s unilateralism. European leaders and Prime Minister Modi have emphasized “trust and shared belief in democratic values” as the cornerstone of India-EU ties. Unlike Trump’s America, which has disdained multilateral agreements, India and the EU remain invested in multilateralism – from supporting the United Nations system to upholding the Paris Climate Accord. Modi has noted that India and Europe both lose in a fragmented world of great-power rivalry, and “stand to gain from a world of cooperation”, echoing Europe’s ethos of cooperation. This value-based alignment makes India a natural partner as the EU champions liberal norms globally in the face of authoritarian challenges. India’s huge electorate and vibrant (if noisy) democracy contrasts with China’s authoritarian model, which Europe views warily. In forums like the UN, G20, and WTO, India often presents itself as a voice of the Global South that still respects the liberal international order – a stance that can bridge Western and developing country positions. Indeed, India increasingly sees itself as a bridge between the West and the Global South, aligning with neither bloc outright but engaging with both. This is useful for the EU, which seeks partners to navigate global issues from climate finance to sustainable development. For example, during India’s G20 presidency, New Delhi helped broker consensus language on divisive issues like Ukraine and debt relief, balancing Western and emerging economies’ concerns in a way the EU appreciated. Such diplomatic capital is invaluable as Europe’s own influence is tested; partnering with India amplifies Europe’s reach among developing nations.

High-Level Engagement and Summits: Over the past few years, India and the EU have visibly upgraded their diplomatic engagement, holding frequent high-level meetings and launching new cooperation frameworks. Annual summits, after a lull, have resumed with vigor. In 2020, despite the pandemic, a virtual summit yielded the “Roadmap to 2025” that set targets for cooperation in areas ranging from trade and climate to security. In May 2021, a landmark EU-India Leaders’ Meeting (with all EU heads of state and PM Modi participating via video conference) broke new ground – it restarted the FTA negotiations after years of deadlock and unveiled an ambitious EU-India Connectivity Partnership to jointly develop infrastructure projects in third countries (an answer to China’s Belt and Road). Diplomatic exchanges have only intensified since Trump’s return to the White House. In February 2025, European Commission President von der Leyen led an unprecedented delegation of almost all her Commissioners to New Delhi for meetings across ministries. This “Team Europe” approach sent a clear signal of the EU’s political commitment to India. Likewise, Modi Team Europe has made Europe a priority in his foreign engagements, visiting key European capitals and engaging closely with leaders like France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s leadership, in addition to EU institutional chiefs. Regular ministerial dialogues now exist on foreign policy, security, trade, and finance. A notable new mechanism is the EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC), established in 2022 (India’s first such forum with any partner besides the U.S.). The TTC held its inaugural meeting in 2023 and serves as a high-level platform to align policies on strategic technologies, digital governance, and trade. These consultations mirror the depth of dialogue the EU typically has only with its closest allies.

Policy coordination has also improved. The EU and India frequently issue joint statements affirming common positions: for instance, they have reiterated a shared commitment to a “free, open, inclusive, and rules-based Indo-Pacific”, with India welcoming greater European engagement in Asia. Both sides support reforming global institutions to be more inclusive – the EU has backed India’s bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat, and India engages constructively in initiatives like the Alliance for Multilateralism championed by European states. Even on tough issues like Russia’s war in Ukraine, European diplomats have kept lines open with India, aiming to nudge New Delhi closer to a principled stance. While India maintained non-alignment (abstaining on UN votes condemning Russia) to protect its interests, the EU continued diplomatic outreach, recognizing India’s importance in any global coalition on peace or stability. This pragmatic engagement – avoiding public acrimony over differences and focusing on long-term partnership – underscores the maturity of India-EU diplomacy today. In essence, shared democratic values and intensified diplomatic dialogue have cemented India as a key like-minded partner for Europe at a time when transatlantic political solidarity is fraying under Trump.

Security and Defense Cooperation

EU’s Security Priorities and India’s Role: With Russia threatening Europe’s neighborhood and U.S. commitments uncertain, the EU has been pursuing greater “strategic autonomy” in security – and sees India as an important strategic partner in this endeavor. Trump’s ambivalence toward NATO and coziness with Moscow have alarmed Europeans and driven home that Europe must be able to secure itself. Meanwhile, in the Indo-Pacific, China’s military rise is challenging the balance of power, prompting Europe to expand its security presence in Asia for the first time in modern history. India looms large in both contexts: it is a fellow democracy wary of Chinese aggression and a regional heavyweight with one of the world’s largest militaries. EU officials explicitly note that “we see India as a key partner in implementing the EU’s Strategy for the Indo-Pacific”. This is reflected in policy – the EU’s 2022 Strategic Compass (defense strategy) specifically mentions India, and the 2021 Indo-Pacific strategy puts India at the center of its vision for a free and open region.

Maritime Security and Military Collaboration: Cooperation on maritime security has become the flagship of India-EU defense ties. In recent years, the Indian Navy and EU naval forces have conducted joint exercises in critical waterways. Notably, a first-ever EU-India naval exercise took place in the Gulf of Guinea (West Africa) in 2023, and India also participated in exercises with the EU’s Operation Atalanta anti-piracy mission in the north-west Indian Ocean. Such exercises enhance interoperability and signal a shared commitment to secure sea lanes from the Indian Ocean to Africa – crucial routes for global trade that both India and Europe rely on. Beyond exercises, multiple security dialogues have been institutionalized, covering counter-terrorism, cyber security, maritime domain awareness, and defense policy. The EU has launched programs like CRIMARIO (Critical Maritime Routes Indian Ocean) to improve Indo-Pacific nations’ maritime surveillance, and India is a partner in these efforts. Another program, ESIWA (Enhancing Security in and with Asia), builds cooperation on cyber, counter-terrorism, and maritime security, with India actively engaged. These initiatives indicate a broadening security interface between New Delhi and Brussels that simply did not exist a decade ago.

On the bilateral front with EU member states, India has deepened defense ties as well. France has become India’s most important individual military partner after Russia – Paris is now India’s second-largest arms supplier, crucially helping New Delhi reduce reliance on Russian weaponry. India’s purchase of French Rafale jets and interest in European submarines and aircraft exemplify this trend. Moreover, India is exploring joint weapons production with several European partners, taking advantage of European defense tech (in aerospace, missiles, naval systems) and India’s large defense market. Joint development or co-production would not only strengthen India’s defense industry but also bind Europe and India in long-term strategic projects. At the EU level, new ideas are being floated – for example, the possibility of India joining specific PESCO projects as an outside partner. The EU has already opened some PESCO projects to like-minded countries (the U.S., Canada, Norway have joined certain projects), and inviting India to collaborate on military mobility or naval technology projects could be mutually beneficial. Furthermore, discussions about a formal Europe-India security and defense partnership agreement are gaining traction, analogous to the pacts the EU recently signed with Japan and South Korea. All these developments signal that defense and security, once peripheral in India-EU relations, are now becoming central.

Geopolitical Considerations and Future Prospects

The intensifying cooperation between India and the European Union must be contextualized within the broader shifts in global geopolitics, particularly involving China, Russia, and the United States under Donald Trump’s second term. Each relationship influences the India-EU partnership differently, creating both opportunities and challenges.

China

Both India and the EU have recalibrated their policies towards China, fostering increasing alignment despite differences in approach. Europe’s strategy has evolved from primarily viewing China as an economic partner to openly identifying it as a “systemic rival,” emphasizing strategic autonomy and economic “de-risking.” India, consistently wary of China due to historical territorial disputes and strategic competition, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, aligns closely with Europe’s concerns regarding Beijing’s assertiveness. The mutual interest in counterbalancing China’s Belt and Road Initiative has resulted in joint infrastructure projects, such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This cooperation enables the EU and India to collectively promote a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” fostering stability and mitigating dependency on China.

Russia

Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, however, poses a more complicated dynamic. The EU firmly opposes Moscow’s actions, maintaining a robust sanctions regime, whereas India adopts a more cautious stance rooted in longstanding defense and energy ties with Russia. India’s abstention from UN votes condemning Russia and its continued procurement of discounted Russian oil have prompted European concerns, highlighting a divergence that challenges their partnership. Nevertheless, the EU acknowledges India’s strategic considerations and maintains diplomatic dialogue, aiming to gradually align positions through quiet diplomacy. India’s incremental diversification of its defense suppliers towards Western countries, notably France and other European states, suggests potential convergence over the longer term.

The United States

The United States’ increasingly transactional and protectionist stance under Trump’s second presidency has ironically facilitated closer EU-India relations. With diminished reliability of U.S. support, both Europe and India seek to diversify their alliances to safeguard strategic autonomy. Trump’s policies have compelled both sides to coordinate more directly on global issues, such as reforming multilateral institutions and addressing security in the Indo-Pacific, independently from U.S. influence. The erosion of transatlantic predictability has reinforced the logic for an EU-India partnership rooted in shared values and mutual benefits, transcending temporary geopolitical disruptions.

Looking forward, opportunities to deepen EU-India cooperation abound, particularly through a potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and expanded collaboration in digital governance, cybersecurity, defense technology, and climate action. However, significant challenges remain. Trade negotiations must overcome substantial disagreements on market access, regulatory standards, and labor and environmental conditions. Politically sensitive issues, such as India’s internal human rights policies and Europe’s occasional protectionist impulses, could impede deeper integration if not carefully managed. Additionally, differing strategic views on Russia and nuanced approaches to China require delicate diplomatic maneuvering.

Successfully navigating these challenges demands sustained political commitment, strategic pragmatism, and institutional frameworks that embed cooperation beyond individual administrations. Should India and the EU effectively address these hurdles, their partnership could emerge as a cornerstone of global stability, providing a resilient alternative to great-power polarization. Ultimately, Trump’s policies have unintentionally underscored the strategic logic of stronger EU-India ties, highlighting their importance in maintaining a multipolar, rule-based international order.

Conclusion

India’s growing importance to the European Union is a reflection of the profound shifts in the global order under Trump’s America First era. As U.S.-Europe relations entered a turbulent phase – marked by tariff wars, weakened trust, and a retreat from multilateral leadership – the EU recognized that diversifying its strategic connections was imperative. India, with its massive economy, democratic polity, and strategic clout, has emerged as a linchpin of that recalibration. Over the past few years, what was once a lukewarm relationship has been revitalized into a multifaceted partnership encompassing trade, diplomacy, defense, and technology. Europe now sees India as not only an alternative market or manufacturing base, but as a like-minded pillar of stability in a multipolar world, partnering to uphold the same international norms that Trump’s policies have often challenged.

Crucially, this partnership has shown resilience in the face of external pressures. Despite Trump’s confrontational approach to allies and India’s historical non-alignment, New Delhi and Brussels have found common strategic cause – a testament to converging interests that transcend any single U.S. administration’s stance. Their cooperation is driven by structural forces: the rise of China, uncertainties about U.S. engagement, and the need to respond to global challenges like climate change and digital disruption. These forces will persist beyond Trump’s tenure, suggesting that India-EU ties are built on a durable foundation. Both have learned to manage differences (for example, over Russia) without letting them undercut the broader relationship, focusing instead on an ambitious forward-looking agenda.

As a result, India and the EU are poised to craft one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century. If they capitalize on the current momentum – finalizing the FTA, expanding strategic collaboration, and speaking with a united voice on global issues – they will significantly enhance their collective influence. For the EU, India offers a bridge to the dynamic Indo-Pacific and a bridge to the Global South, reinforcing Europe’s global reach at a time of introspection in Washington. For India, the EU provides investment, technology, and a powerful diplomatic ally to bolster India’s rise on the world stage, all without compromising its strategic autonomy. In a world increasingly defined by great-power competition and bloc politics, the India-EU partnership stands out as a flexible, value-based alliance of “middle powers” charting their own course. It underpins a more distributed and hence resilient global order.

In conclusion, Donald Trump’s second-term policies, ironically, have pushed the European Union and India into a closer embrace – one based on pragmatism, shared principles, and a mutual desire to secure their interests in a turbulent world. India’s significance to the EU has never been greater, and if current trends continue, this partnership will not only weather external shocks but emerge as a key stabilizer in the international system. Despite the challenges ahead, India and the EU have demonstrated a resolve to deepen ties, suggesting that the bonds forged under pressure will endure, providing each with a reliable friend in an era of unpredictable change. The India-EU strategic partnership, once an afterthought, is now coming into its own – and it will likely be one of the enduring legacies of the tumultuous geopolitical shifts witnessed in the age of “America First.”