AIR AND SPACE POWER
NATO in Focus: Brussels Summit
In the midst of Cold War 2.0, Brussels will host NATO Heads of State and/or Government who will convene this week on 11-12 July 2018 for the 28th NATO Summit normally held biennially. Leaders from Finland, Sweden, Ukraine, Georgia and RSM partner nations will also be...
Burden Sharing at NATO and the Battle of 2 Percent
ABSTRACT Burden sharing has been one of the most hotly contested issues in NATO especially since the end of Cold War. Trump’s bitter statements about utility of the Alliance in the wake of his election and following urge by U.S. policy-makers to make Europe pay...
Does Terrorism End Itself? ETA’s Announcement of Dissolution
The underlying source of a terrorist organization’s sustainability seems altruistic; it claims to be a champion of a larger cause. This claim to legitimacy underscores its raison d'etre and shapes its reputation. Terrorism is a theater where the battle for legitimacy...
Fighting Terrorism Through an Effective Bureaucracy
Introduction Why do some countries experience more terrorism than others? The role of bureaucratic capacity is intensely investigated by existing research to address this puzzle, and the previous studies show that having a strong bureaucracy is useful for states to be...
HORIZON INSIGHTS EDITION-2
NATO in Focus: Defense Ministerial June 2018
As the last high profile gathering before the Summit, NATO Defence Ministerial (DEFMIN) took place between 7-8 June 2018 at Brussels, Belgium. Although overshadowed by the G7 summit, decisions taken at DEFMIN were quite important, and the atmosphere in Brussels was...
New threats – different response: EU and NATO and Somali piracy
To cite this article: Marianne Riddervold (2014) New threats – different response: EU and NATO and Somali piracy, European Security, 23:4, 546-564, DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2014.937337 When the (EU) launched its first military naval mission, EU NAVFOR Somalia, Atalanta,...
NATO in Focus: Two Allies at Crossroads
Geography is destiny. Among other things, it shapes a country’s history, economy, its military buildup and even its ideology. Its geographic location alone may play a crucial role in determining which bloc it will find itself in or it should strive to be a part of. No...
“FASCISM – A WARNING” BY MADELEINE ALBRIGHT
Watching Madeleine Albright introducing her latest book “Fascism – A Warning” in Georgetown University, her passion on the subject was unmistakable. As a victim of fascism, she spoke about her experiences as a small child in her native land Czechoslovakia, first...
179th Military Committee in Chiefs of Defence Session – May 2018
The 179th Military Committee in Chiefs of Defence (CHODs) Session (MC/CS) convened on 16 May 2018 for the first time at the new NATO Headquarters in Brussels. General Petr Pavel, who has been serving as the Chairman of the Military Committee (CMC) since 2015...
Why Upcoming Convention Will Not Solve Trans-Caspian Pipeline Problem
Abstract: A presidential summit of the Caspian littoral countries is expected to be held soon this year. The convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea is highly likely to be signed by all the five littorals at the summit. However, there are significant...
After Parliamentary Election in Iraq
Updated on 21 May 2018 Parliamentary elections were held in peace on 12 May 2018 in Iraq. The turnover was mere 44.52 percent of registered voters,15 percent lower than that of previous election in 2014. In fact, the participation was the lowest among those held after...
Challenges of Radicalization to Violent Extremism for Europe and Beyond
A Beyond the Horizon Conference 18 June 2018 Brussels Press Club, Belgium "Breaking the ISIS Brand Counter Narrative Project – Addressing the Challenges of Radicalization to Violent Extremism for Europe and Beyond" by Anne Speckhard, Ph.D.* EVENT REPLAY GALLERY...
ANDSF Roadmap: AAF & ASSF Reform and NATO Support
Following the conclusion of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation, Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) assumed full security responsibility of their country. Despite enormous efforts including spending more than $ 70 bn...
A Brief Look into The 2016 Global Terrorism Index Report
The aim of this paper is to give a general look into the “2016 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) Report” by The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). The report is available online[1]. IEP, founded in 2007, is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit think tank...
A humanitarian mission in line with human rights? Assessing Sophia, the EU’s naval response to the migration crisis
To cite this article: Marianne Riddervold (2018): A humanitarian mission in line with human rights? Assessing Sophia, the EU’s naval response to the migration crisis, European Security, DOI: 10.1080/09662839.2018.1451842 ABSTRACT This article adds to our understanding...
NATO in Focus: New NATO Atlantic Joint Force Command
As part of the adaptation measures taken by NATO Allies after Russian aggression,NATO Defence Ministers agreed upon an outline for future work to adapt the Command Structure[1]including a new Joint Force Command for the Atlantic to ensure that sea lines of...
Who Will Rescue American Babies From ISIS?
A recent PBS series highlighted the case of an American mother, Samantha Elhassani, who took her two American children into the so-called Islamic State and had two more babies there with her Moroccan husband, who became a member of ISIS. Her two eldest children, now...
NATO in Focus: NATO Foreign Ministerial (FORMIN) April 2018
NATO’s foreign ministers met on 27 April 2018 for the last time at the old NATO Headquaters as part of the preparations for the biennial NATO Summit to be held in July this year in Brussels. Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Western Balkans were...
A General Overview of Iran’s Nuclear Program
Iran is a middle-eastern regional power that has a turbulent history of international relations. Its nuclear program is one of the highly-debated issues of contemporary international politics. Iran started its nuclear agenda during 1950s while Shah Reza Pahlavi was...
Despite Trump’s theatrics, the Iran deal can be saved
In the theatrical style of a capricious reality-TV host, US President Donald Trump has been building up suspense over an American withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. He has consistently called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- which was negotiated...
The challenges for the EU as the Brexit deadline looms on the horizon
United Kingdom (UK) voters have chosen to leave the European Union (EU) with the historic referendum on June 2016. As the countdown continues for the set date of 29 March 2019, there has been no deal in the negotiations yet, and it seems like a win-win deal is far...
Australia’s Offshore Asylum Policy: Power, Law and Human Rights
By Angelo Jong, Ibrahim Genc, Joshua Saunders, Liseth Medina Vizcaino Abstract The Structural Synergies of Power (SSP) Method will be used in this global response strategy to explore the interlocking systems of power which have led to the creation of the...
Quarterly Horizon Tour in the Mediterranean Sea (Winter Sail-Q1/18)
1. Introduction: Since the beginning of history, the Mediterranean has a unique place in world order,with its locationin the middle of three continents, with its assets such as sea routes, channels, passages and straits combining different political regimes, religions...
What is Next After US-led Military Strike in Syria?
On 7 April 2018, the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Douma was subjected to a chemical weapons attack, killed more than 42 residents and affected more than 500. Although activists inside Douma, the U.S.-based Syrian American Medical Society, and Syria Civil Defence have...
Russia’s Hybrid Warfare: Information, Energy and the Black Sea
On 29 March 2018, there was a news headline about a ‘hijacking’ on the Moscow Times’ online edition. The headline reads: “Russia Accuses Ukraine of Hijacking Crimean Fishing Vessel in Violation of International Law.” It continues as Ukrainian border guards detained a...
Child Returnees: A Proposal for Managing Their Return from Conflict Zones
“While estimating the number of children who have travelled from Europe to DAESH territory is difficult, another unknown is the actual number of children born (or yet to be born) in Syria or Iraq to European parents.”[1] Some of children were teenagers and went to the...
EU Maritime Security Policies and the EU as a Global Maritime Power
Marianne Riddervold, an eminent scholar of “EU Maritime Security Policies,” is currently an Associate Professor at the Norway University of the Applied Sciences and a Researcher at The Norwegian Institute of Foreign Affairs in Norway. In 2013, she was awarded...
2017 Piracy Assessment and Avoidance Methods from Piracy Attacks
1. Introduction: Maritime transport is crucial to the world’s economy as over 90% of the world’s trade is carried by sea, and it is the most cost-effective way to move goods and raw materials around the world at this time. The massive commercial maritime traffic makes...
Brussels Summit 2018 “A Future for Europe”
Beyond the Horizon ISSG is one of the participants alongside the Brussels Summit 2018 in Think Tank Central. That dedicated exhibition space will serve as a platform for the exchange of ideas, a forum for discussion between participants, supporters and friends,...
What is the Significance of the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics?
This year bore witness to unexpected signs of improvements in Inter-Korean relations, as became clearer during PyeongChang Winter Olympics between February 9-25. This change of tone in relations between the two states prompts three interrelated questions: How did it...
(Combined) FONOPs Warm the Waters in South China Sea
After US declared that they changed their pivot to Asia-Pacific region in 2012, both Obama and Trump administrations kept increased numbers of Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea under the authority of US Pacific Command. The Obama...
Guidelines for Horizon Insights Contributors
Beyond the Horizon welcomes your unsolicited manuscripts. Upon receipt, we inform you about acknowledgement within six weeks. Beyond the Horizon International Strategic Studies Group is a non-partisan, independent, and non-profit think tank. The mission of Beyond the...
AI and the Future of Russia’s Political Warfare
By Alina Polyakova** and Spencer Phipps Boyer** The Kremlin’s political warfare against democratic countries has evolved from overt to covert influence activities. But while Russia has pioneered the toolkit of asymmetric measures for the 21st century, including...
Will UNSC Resolution 2401(2018) Be Really Effective?
On 24 February 2018, United Nations Security Council (UNSC) released a resolution to cease hostilities without delay for at least 30 consecutive days, ensuring a “durable humanitarian pause” to enable humanitarian aid deliveries and medical evacuations of the...
Threats to the Liberal International Order in a Changing World
There is a widespread acceptance that recent developments have raised concerns with regard to the constancy of the liberal international order, established in the aftermath of World War II. In light of the Munich Security Report 2018, we could hold that main threats...
HORIZON INSIGHTS EDITION-1
An Assessment of International Conference for Reconstruction of Iraq
Amidst great political turbulence in the run-up to the legislative elections, International Conference for Reconstruction of Iraq was held in Kuwait between 12-14 February 2018. The venue is ironic because Kuwait had become subject to Iraqi aggression in 1990 and had...
Another Face of Abu Qatada: Speaking on the Principle of Terrorism
Abu Qatada, who many have called the spiritual father of al Qaeda in Europe, is a scholar of Islam and what many might deem a terrorist instigator, or an ideologue who puts out arguments in support of militant jihad, but never himself fights jihad or spills blood....
EU & NATO Naval Operations and Irregular Migration in the Mediterranean
1. Introduction Tragedy of the people searching for safe havens is nowadays drawing more attention than ever and being felt deeply in our hearts, despite the fact that many of us have already closed our ears to the depressive news with the expectation of new...
Operation Olive Branch and Potential Outcomes for NATO
As the Turkish military Operation Olive Branch continues in northeast Syria, political and strategic NATO bodies continue to refrain from making any strong comments, either supportive or critical, on the operation. So far there have been only two statements...
PESCO and EU Defence Integration After Brexit
The theatricals surrounding the decision to move to phase II of the Brexit negotiations obscure another momentous European development: the launch of ‘permanent structured cooperation’ in the defence field. In this CEPS Commentary, Steven Blockmans explains...
Hezbollah’s Just War Doctrine: Israel, Syria, and Legitimacy
Hezbollah has long championed the armed confrontation against Israel in the Middle East. (ICG Report 2017, 2). Its image in the Arab street made a peak after the July war in 2006, and the group depicted this as its second victory after ending the Israeli...
Can ISIS Child Soldiers Be Rehabilitated? Lessons from Iraq
Hundreds of thousands of children around the world have been seduced and forced into being child soldiers and cadres in the service of armed and violent groups. Many have been successfully treated using a combination of individual, family and community...
The Signs of a Regional War in Middle East and Path to WWIII
The Middle East (ME) has never been a peaceful place and throughout history, instability in the ME has always been a concern for the rest of the world. While these anxieties continue, in the past decade the ME has witnessed several extraordinary developments. If these...
Post-Daesh Challenges for Europe
Daesh is about to lose the whole territory it holds in Syria and Iraq once as big as the UK. The Salafi jihadist organization, ruling over 6 million population with an army of 30.000 in 2015, had benefited from sectarian and ethnic tensions and imposed its ideology...
Irregular Immigration, Maritime Security and the EU–Turkey Deal
1. INTRODUCTION: Irregular immigration has become one of the toughest challenges in recent years that the world is facing, along with the terrorism. Since the latter has been exploiting the first heavily, these two challenges have become so intertwined that now it is...
Operation Olive Branch and the Strategic Recalibration in Syria
Operation Olive Branch, which started on 20 January 2018, has been advancing in multiple axes towards Afrin. On the 9th day of the operation, Turkish Forces together with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) units have not yet confronted by a serious resistance from the...
Russian Political Warfare and NATO–EU Responses After Ukraine
1.Introduction Since eruption of the Ukraine crisis, the world has witnessed a well-developed Russian political warfare strategy and the hybrid model, utilised by Kremlin, which have had destabilising consequences and as well as wide-ranging implications for...
Why Nations Fail to Solve Known Security and Peace Challenges
“There is nothing new under the sun” is a biblical idiom refers to the thinking that the essence of human life remains unchanged. It doesn’t mean that nothing changes. We cannot ignore the inventions in technology or the advances in various lines of social life....
Swarm UAV Attack: Time to Revisit Threat Assessments
On 6 Jan 2018 Russian Hmeimim air base in northwestern Latakia province, the headquarters of Russia’s military operations in Syria, and naval base at Tartus was allegedly targeted by swarm of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). The Russian Defense Ministry announced that...
Conference on European Neighbourhood Policy-2018
Organised by the Institute of European Studies at Saint Louis University with the collaboration of Beyond the Horizon ISSG Date and Time: 30 January 2018 For details of the program and keynote speakers’ information please click HERE... GALLERY Except the temporary peace like term between 1941-1979 when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ruled Iran, the...
Foreign Military Involvement in Iraq And Syria
In line with the universal ban on use of force, relations in military field are subject to more limitations than relations in other fields. One of few exceptions of military involvement in another country is the consent of that state. In this analysis having state...
Regions and Powers
Buzan, Barry., & Waever, Ole. (2003). Regions and Powers. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Barry Buzan and Ole Weawer’s work “Regions and Powers” can be cited as an important book attempting to lay the foundations of regional security dynamics in a given...
Turkey is Playing its S-400 Cards Again!
Turkey is willing to buy S-400 missile defence system from Russia and there are some serious recent developments regarding this deal. Recent Developments On July 14, 2017, Bloomberg published a detailed article about that deal. The main points of the deal...
NATO, Trump and Turkey:The Alliance Needs More Coherence*
On 25 May 2017, NATO leaders met in Brussels to celebrate the opening the new headquarters in Boulevard Léopold III. The location of the new headquarters is historically very significant: during construction four unexploded bombs from both the First and Second World...
Counterinsurgency, Modern Armies and Role of Paramilitary Forces
Countering the insurgency problem is increasingly becoming an arduous task for modern armies, and the success rate of those armies in counterinsurgency wars is declining. While states could defeat insurgents during 19th century, they become less capable to eliminate...
Kosovo Security Architecture and Politics of KSF Transformation
The Balkan Peninsula, being located on the border line between East and West, Islam and Christianity, communism and capitalism (during the Cold War), has proven its strategic importance by playing great roles in both World Wars. Moreover, in many times, Balkans itself...
Macron and France’s Relations with Sub-Saharan Africa
After centuries of being the passive side in the mutual relations, African leaders realized by the end of 20th century that the power balance was shifting in their favor. They were not that old colonial countries and the rules of politics in the world were changing...
Economic Inequality as A Cause for Escalation in Populist Votes
Populism and populist policies always find supporters among the people who are dissatisfied with the governments. However, the number of their followers may change according to the policies of governments on several issues, most of which either have an effect on the...
Arab Spring and the Failure of Democratic Transition in MENA
Arab Spring uprisings were one of the most remarkable events seen in the history as a struggle for democracy against the dictators throughout Middle East and North Africa. The people’s efforts to overthrow the dictators, and achieve a democratic transition for their...
The Forthcoming Kurdish State and Its Potential Consequences
Before the first Gulf War, Kurds were not a well-known ethnic group in the world. Saddam Hussein regime’s harsh repression against Kurds in Iraq, and Turkey’s long-lasting counterterrorism campaign against PKK have drawn considerable attention from the international...
Technology and War Strategy
By Murat ÇALIŞKAN[*]and Michel LIÉGEOIS[†] Technology plays a crucial role in the outcomes of war. The rifle, the railroad and the telegraph in 19th Century Wars, the machine gun, the airplane and the tank in 20th Century Wars, and information technologies in recent...
The Fifth Wave of Terrorism: Causes and Global Resurgence
Terrorism is a never-ending phenomenon with its roots going back to the beginning of humanity on earth and will most likely continue until the end of it. Although the patterns and the spikes vary, it is sufficing to say that there has never been a period without...
Why the EU and NATO Have Failed to Manage the Ukraine Crisis
The world observed a well-developed Russian strategy and military model have had destabilizing consequences and wide-ranging implications for international security, in particular for Europe, and global stability since the Ukraine crisis. Needless to say, most...
Corruption and A Case Study for Albania
Corruption is neither new to the politics nor specific to a nation or a region. Yet its effects can be seen more pronounced in some cases. Think of a country with a young population, strategic location and deep historical tradition... Yet it is still not among the...
The Concise History of the “Caliphate”?
It has been 93 years since the abolition of the Ottoman Caliphate by the Turkish Parliament. During this time, many people and groups rose claiming themselves as the Caliph and rightful restorer of the Caliphate such as Sharif Husain in the Arabic peninsula, the...
Growing Role of NGOs and the UN
Today the UN and NGOs are so intertwined that most people think that some NGOs make up a part of the UN system; however, this is not the case. According to the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the NGO Branch of the UN Department, the number of...
Tocqueville and Democratic Despotism in Modern Democracies
“Only God can be omnipotent (all-powerful) without danger because His wisdom and justice are always equal to His power.So, there is no power on earth in itself so worthy of respect or vested with such a sacred right that I would wish to let it act without control and...
The Rise of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
“We have won a war with a lot of heroes flying around in planes. The next war may be fought with airplanes with no man in them at all,”said General Henry Arnold, the only Air Force General to hold a 5-star rank in two different US military services, (1945).[1] The...
What is ISIS? Its Identity and Goals in a Nutshell
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or the self-declared “caliphate of the Islamic State” has become the most dangerous threat to global security since al-Qaeda. It is more than just a threat to America and the West, because it poses a more existential threat...
Why “Hybrid Warfare” Misleads: Rethinking the Russia–Ukraine War
Hybrid warfare has become new orthodoxy in international community which allegedly describe the characteristics of contemporary warfare. Furthermore, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is almost unanimously referred as a model for hybrid warfare. However, both...
French Influence in Africa (Post-Colonial Period)
France has been involved with Africa and tried to be there not only for remaining an effective powerin the world but also providing the needs of the mainland.For this purpose, a question has arisen as to where and how to succeed. With the help of the old positive...
Why Terrorism Spreads?
Three major factors caused international terrorism to rise in the second decade of 21st century. First, the power vacuum and instability in Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa – caused / triggered by the Arab Spring and the corrupt governments/failed states. Second,...
How Terrorism Ends: A Critical Review of Audrey Kurth Cronin
The aim of this paper is to critically analyze the 2011 book ‘How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns’ by Audrey Kurth Cronin. The Author is a professor at the School of International Service at American University in...
Europe’s Illegal Immigration Crisis: Why the System Failed
Over the recent decades, it has been a common belief that the hope of beginning a new life in Europe turns into a real tragedy for many people with African and Asian origins, including Middle Easterners. A major humanitarian crisis caused by deaths (over 10% of...
Turkey’s S-400 Dilemma: Air and Missile Defence at a Crossroads
Turkey is one of the few countries conducting air defence almost solely with aircraft, despite sizable armed forces with a wide array of capabilities. As odd as it sounds, it has been a disturbing reality for military officials for a long time as the Armed Forces...
Operational Design of Cyber Warfare
Military experts are best known for their ability to plan. Planning is essential in all military activities due to the nature of war. War itself is an ill-structured problem. The better you plan, the less complex the problem gets and becomes well structured. Famous...
How Deterrent is NATO’S Cyber Posture?
In Ukraine, on December 2015, an energy facility was hit by Russian-affiliated cyber group, and 225.000 people between 1-6 hours were affected from this outage. (1) Outage assuming as first well documented successful cyber-attack on a power grid. This recent incident...
Was the US Election Hacked?
As usual, the world watched the United States elections on November 8. Donald Trump won the election and started as the 45th US president, contrary to expectations and surveys. The results of the elections surprised the international community. Meanwhile,...
How Can Turkey and Armenia be Good Neighbours?
Even though Turkey and Armenia have severe hostilities, the peaceful relations between ordinary Turks and Armenians have a very long history going back to even before Ottoman Empire. Until the late 19th century, these two ethnic groups lived at peace, and moreover,...
French Influence in Africa (Colonial Period)
France is a country that has always been influential in Africa. Unlike other states, the relations of France, which started before colonialism, have continued without interruption in her pré carré (sphere of influence). France attempted to establish relations with all...
Future Urban Warfare: Tactical and Equipment Needs
“Master Euphrates tells bold and nice Sincere weeping in his eyes.” The counterterrorism struggle, which had been carried out in the mountains or the forests until recently, has now transformed into urban warfare. Some of the prominent reasons which caused this to...
Book Review: The United States of Europe
The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy* As European Union is currently having a hard time with several internal problems, such as BREXIT and the rise of national populist parties against the union, it is worth reviewing the famous book “The United States...
Turkey, EU, and the Refugee Crisis
As an indirect consequence of the Syrian conflict and the broader security environment in the Middle East, Europe has faced a serious refugee and migrant crisis in the last couple of years.1 This required intensive traffic between Western policy-makers and the Turkish...
Misconception About Terrorism
Our understanding of terrorism is mostly shaped by politicians, who sometimes arbitrarily use this term to stigmatise even people who are opposing their policies. Terrorism or terrorist violence, however, is just a violent tactic that is used by insurgent groups, and...