Guidelines for Horizon Insights Contributors
Beyond the Horizon welcomes your unsolicited manuscripts. Upon receipt, we inform you about acknowledgement within six weeks. Beyond the Horizon International Strategic Studies Group is a non-partisan, independent, and non-profit think tank. The mission of Beyond the...
The Future of Political Warfare: Russia, The West, And The Coming Age of Global Digital Competition*
By Alina Polyakova** and Spencer Phipps Boyer** The Kremlin’s political warfare against democratic countries has evolved from overt to covert influence activities. But while Russia has pioneered the toolkit of asymmetric measures for the 21st century, including...
Will UNSC Resolution 2401(2018) Be Really Effective?
On 24 February 2018, United Nations Security Council (UNSC) released a resolution to cease hostilities without delay for at least 30 consecutive days, ensuring a “durable humanitarian pause” to enable humanitarian aid deliveries and medical evacuations of the...
The Road to Collapse of the Liberal International Order: The End of History?
There is a widespread acceptance that recent developments have raised concerns with regard to the constancy of the liberal international order, established in the aftermath of World War II. In light of the Munich Security Report 2018, we could hold that main threats...
HORIZON INSIGHTS EDITION-1
An Assessment of International Conference for Reconstruction of Iraq
Amidst great political turbulence in the run-up to the legislative elections, International Conference for Reconstruction of Iraq was held in Kuwait between 12-14 February 2018. The venue is ironic because Kuwait had become subject to Iraqi aggression in 1990 and had...
Another Face of Abu Qatada: Speaking on the Principle of Terrorism
Abu Qatada, who many have called the spiritual father of al Qaeda in Europe, is a scholar of Islam and what many might deem a terrorist instigator, or an ideologue who puts out arguments in support of militant jihad, but never himself fights jihad or spills blood....
Efficiency and Relevance of EU-NATO Operations in the Mediterranean as a Cure for Irregular Immigration
1. Introduction Tragedy of the people searching for safe havens is nowadays drawing more attention than ever and being felt deeply in our hearts, despite the fact that many of us have already closed our ears to the depressive news with the expectation of new...
Operation Olive Branch and Potential Outcomes for NATO
As the Turkish military Operation Olive Branch continues in northeast Syria, political and strategic NATO bodies continue to refrain from making any strong comments, either supportive or critical, on the operation. So far there have been only two statements...
Europe’s Defence Train Has Left the Station – Speed and Destination Unknown
The theatricals surrounding the decision to move to phase II of the Brexit negotiations obscure another momentous European development: the launch of ‘permanent structured cooperation’ in the defence field. In this CEPS Commentary, Steven Blockmans explains...
Fighting a non-Muslim and a Muslim enemy: What changed for Lebanese Hezbollah?
Hezbollah has long championed the armed confrontation against Israel in the Middle East. (ICG Report 2017, 2). Its image in the Arab street made a peak after the July war in 2006, and the group depicted this as its second victory after ending the Israeli...
Recovery, Rehabilitation & Reintegration of the “Lost” Children Living and Serving Under the Islamic State
Hundreds of thousands of children around the world have been seduced and forced into being child soldiers and cadres in the service of armed and violent groups. Many have been successfully treated using a combination of individual, family and community...
The Signs of a Regional War in Middle East and Path to WWIII
The Middle East (ME) has never been a peaceful place and throughout history, instability in the ME has always been a concern for the rest of the world. While these anxieties continue, in the past decade the ME has witnessed several extraordinary developments. If these...
Post-Daesh Challenges for Europe
Daesh is about to lose the whole territory it holds in Syria and Iraq once as big as the UK. The Salafi jihadist organization, ruling over 6 million population with an army of 30.000 in 2015, had benefited from sectarian and ethnic tensions and imposed its ideology...
Irregular Immigration Flow from Middle East to Europe: Challenges, Sea-based Efforts and EU-Turkey Readmission Agreement
1. INTRODUCTION: Irregular immigration has become one of the toughest challenges in recent years that the world is facing, along with the terrorism. Since the latter has been exploiting the first heavily, these two challenges have become so intertwined that now it is...
What does Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch mean for the parties in Syria?
Operation Olive Branch, which started on 20 January 2018, has been advancing in multiple axes towards Afrin. On the 9th day of the operation, Turkish Forces together with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) units have not yet confronted by a serious resistance from the...
A Comparative Study of “Russian Political Warfare against the West and the Western (NATO & EU) Counteractions”
1.Introduction Since eruption of the Ukraine crisis, the world has witnessed a well-developed Russian political warfare strategy and the hybrid model, utilised by Kremlin, which have had destabilising consequences and as well as wide-ranging implications for...
Why Nations Do Not Fight Against Problems? “Nothing New Under the Sun”
“There is nothing new under the sun” is a biblical idiom refers to the thinking that the essence of human life remains unchanged. It doesn’t mean that nothing changes. We cannot ignore the inventions in technology or the advances in various lines of social life....
Swarm UAV Attack: Time to Revisit Threat Assessments
On 6 Jan 2018 Russian Hmeimim air base in northwestern Latakia province, the headquarters of Russia’s military operations in Syria, and naval base at Tartus was allegedly targeted by swarm of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). The Russian Defense Ministry announced that...
Conference on European Neighbourhood Policy-2018
Organised by the Institute of European Studies at Saint Louis University with the collaboration of Beyond the Horizon ISSG Date and Time: 30 January 2018 For details of the program and keynote speakers’ information please click HERE... GALLERY [gallery size="large"...
Degrading Al Shabaab by Effective Military Tools
By Fatih Celenay, Brandon Rapoza, Ratna Gamage The purpose of this paper is to design a toolkit to decrease the violence and terrorism in Somalia. What are the practical solutions to increase the efficiency of military campaigns against Al Shabaab? We will conduct our...
Turkey’s Air and Missile Defense Adventures
Increased tension over the past couple of years between West and Turkey has reached to another level after Turkey and Russia signed an accord for supplying S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries. The S-400 deal, reportedly worth some $2.5 billion and according...
Undocumented* (Illegal) Migration and the Ramifications for European Security
For a decade now, documented migrants along with undocumented migration has become one of the main concerns that is dominating the headlines of European media and setting the agenda of both the European Union (EU) and the member states. Many images and videos exist of...
Kaufman, Stuart J. Nationalist Passions
“…when we think about people’s behavior, our first question should not be about the person’s “rational” interests, but about his or her biases.” (p.237) Stuart J. Kaufman, a prominent scholar of “Ethnicity and Ethnic Conflicts," is currently a professor at the...
Maritime Disputes in South/East China Sea from Military Aspect
Approximately 3.5 million square km area of the South China Sea has been under dispute as China, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei and lastly Indonesia. All have claimed sovereignty over this maritime area. China claims sovereignty over 90% of the South...
What Comes After ISIS: A Sociological Analysis of Radicalisation Into Violent Extremism
By Uğur ORAK, Non-resident Fellow at Beyond the Horizon, Ph.D Candidate and Kasim DOGAN, Visiting Fellow at Beyond the Horizon, PhD 1. Introduction If we can determine what drives people to commit such heinous crimes, it is suggested, perhaps we can change their...
How can’t ISIS re-emerge? Weak states and Post-ISIS Challenges
Introduction Considering the retreats of ISIS from Mosul and Rakka, the expectations for the collapse of ISIS is rising but the crucial questions remain that need to be addressed. In this article, we focus on explaining how weak states offer convenient environments...
Integration of EU Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) with NATO
The interaction between EU CSDP and relevant NATO policies integration of NATO and EU on defense policy is the main subject of this article. This is why the aim is to deal with and analyze whether the European integration with NATO should/can be. To do so, the...
A distractor or a catalyst for a chain reaction for more violence in Levant? Kurdish Referendum under Scrutiny
Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has declared to hold a non-binding referendum on September 25. As the date comes closer, more elements add to the great puzzle unfolding in the Levant. Great powers like US and UK that set the scene for the fragmentation of the...
Taxonomy of Hybrid Warfare: A Perceptional Analysis
Hybrid warfare has become a term for modern warfare or for the next war. However, hybrid warfare as a term itself is a poor descriptor. Thus, the purpose of this article is to contribute to the understanding the hybrid warfare by developing a perceptional map,...
More Than a Defense Acquisition-Turkey’s S-400 Quest
Turkey has been a key ally for the western world for decades. Once a role model democracy in the middle-east and formidable NATO ally with a stand out armed forces in the region, Turkey safeguarded the southeastern flank of the alliance with confidence....
Conflict Escalation on the Korean Peninsula or Space for Dialogue in President Trump Era?
During the year North Korea’s 16 missile tests and their impact on relations with South Korea and the United States have dominated news reports on Korean affairs, in spite of the May 9 election of Moon Jae-in as new South Korean president following the Constitutional...
Russian Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Change Analysis (1990-2016)
After the cold war Russia managed to hold on to its ICBMs power with nuclear capabilities despite the economic difficulties and political instability. Even just after cold war during 1990s, it managed to develop SS-27 high tech ICBM without any participation of the...
Saudi Arabia-Iran Rivalry and the ISIS
The structural factors behind Middle East rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia are so deep and it’s very difficult to overcome the problems in the near future.[1] Except the temporary peace like term between 1941-1979 when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ruled Iran, the...
Foreign Military Involvement in Iraq And Syria
In line with the universal ban on use of force, relations in military field are subject to more limitations than relations in other fields. One of few exceptions of military involvement in another country is the consent of that state. In this analysis having state...
Regions and Powers
Buzan, Barry., & Waever, Ole. (2003). Regions and Powers. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Barry Buzan and Ole Weawer’s work “Regions and Powers” can be cited as an important book attempting to lay the foundations of regional security dynamics in a given...
Turkey is Playing its S-400 Cards Again!
Turkey is willing to buy S-400 missile defence system from Russia and there are some serious recent developments regarding this deal. Recent Developments On July 14, 2017, Bloomberg published a detailed article about that deal. The main points of the deal...
NATO, Trump and Turkey:The Alliance Needs More Coherence*
On 25 May 2017, NATO leaders met in Brussels to celebrate the opening the new headquarters in Boulevard Léopold III. The location of the new headquarters is historically very significant: during construction four unexploded bombs from both the First and Second World...
What is The Problem of Modern Armies with Insurgency and How Can Paramilitary Forces Help Us Defeat Insurgents?
Countering the insurgency problem is increasingly becoming an arduous task for modern armies, and the success rate of those armies in counterinsurgency wars is declining. While states could defeat insurgents during 19th century, they become less capable to eliminate...
Question of Upgrading Security in Kosovo: Transformation of Kosovo Security Force (KSF)
The Balkan Peninsula, being located on the border line between East and West, Islam and Christianity, communism and capitalism (during the Cold War), has proven its strategic importance by playing great roles in both World Wars. Moreover, in many times, Balkans itself...
Macron and France’s Relations with Sub-Saharan Africa
After centuries of being the passive side in the mutual relations, African leaders realized by the end of 20th century that the power balance was shifting in their favor. They were not that old colonial countries and the rules of politics in the world were changing...
Economic Inequality as A Cause for Escalation in Populist Votes
Populism and populist policies always find supporters among the people who are dissatisfied with the governments. However, the number of their followers may change according to the policies of governments on several issues, most of which either have an effect on the...
Why Didn’t the Removal of the Dictators Work and Why is Negotiating with Them a Better Option for Democracy to Arabs?
Arab Spring uprisings were one of the most remarkable events seen in the history as a struggle for democracy against the dictators throughout Middle East and North Africa. The people’s efforts to overthrow the dictators, and achieve a democratic transition for their...
The Forthcoming Kurdish State and Its Potential Consequences
Before the first Gulf War, Kurds were not a well-known ethnic group in the world. Saddam Hussein regime’s harsh repression against Kurds in Iraq, and Turkey’s long-lasting counterterrorism campaign against PKK have drawn considerable attention from the international...
Technology and War Strategy
By Murat ÇALIŞKAN[*]and Michel LIÉGEOIS[†] Technology plays a crucial role in the outcomes of war. The rifle, the railroad and the telegraph in 19th Century Wars, the machine gun, the airplane and the tank in 20th Century Wars, and information technologies in recent...
Resurgence of International Terrorist Organizations in the 21st Century
Terrorism is a never-ending phenomenon with its roots going back to the beginning of humanity on earth and will most likely continue until the end of it. Although the patterns and the spikes vary, it is sufficing to say that there has never been a period without...
Why the EU and NATO Have Failed to Manage the Ukraine Crisis
The world observed a well-developed Russian strategy and military model have had destabilizing consequences and wide-ranging implications for international security, in particular for Europe, and global stability since the Ukraine crisis. Needless to say, most...
Corruption and A Case Study for Albania
Corruption is neither new to the politics nor specific to a nation or a region. Yet its effects can be seen more pronounced in some cases. Think of a country with a young population, strategic location and deep historical tradition... Yet it is still not among the...
The Concise History of the “Caliphate”?
It has been 93 years since the abolition of the Ottoman Caliphate by the Turkish Parliament. During this time, many people and groups rose claiming themselves as the Caliph and rightful restorer of the Caliphate such as Sharif Husain in the Arabic peninsula, the...
Growing Role of NGOs and the UN
Today the UN and NGOs are so intertwined that most people think that some NGOs make up a part of the UN system; however, this is not the case. According to the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the NGO Branch of the UN Department, the number of...
Democratic Despotism and Democracy’s Drift: Tocqueville’s Validity Today
“Only God can be omnipotent (all-powerful) without danger because His wisdom and justice are always equal to His power.So, there is no power on earth in itself so worthy of respect or vested with such a sacred right that I would wish to let it act without control and...
The Rise of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
“We have won a war with a lot of heroes flying around in planes. The next war may be fought with airplanes with no man in them at all,”said General Henry Arnold, the only Air Force General to hold a 5-star rank in two different US military services, (1945).[1] The...
What is ISIS? Its Identity and Goals in a Nutshell
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or the self-declared “caliphate of the Islamic State” has become the most dangerous threat to global security since al-Qaeda. It is more than just a threat to America and the West, because it poses a more existential threat...
A Critique of Hybrid Warfare in the Light of Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Military Strategy
Hybrid warfare has become new orthodoxy in international community which allegedly describe the characteristics of contemporary warfare. Furthermore, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is almost unanimously referred as a model for hybrid warfare. However, both...
French Influence in Africa (Post-Colonial Period)
France has been involved with Africa and tried to be there not only for remaining an effective powerin the world but also providing the needs of the mainland.For this purpose, a question has arisen as to where and how to succeed. With the help of the old positive...
Why Terrorism Spreads?
Three major factors caused international terrorism to rise in the second decade of 21st century. First, the power vacuum and instability in Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa – caused / triggered by the Arab Spring and the corrupt governments/failed states. Second,...
A Critique on How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns
The aim of this paper is to critically analyze the 2011 book ‘How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns’ by Audrey Kurth Cronin. The Author is a professor at the School of International Service at American University in...
Drivers of the Failure in Management of the Illegal Immigration Crisis in Europe
Over the recent decades, it has been a common belief that the hope of beginning a new life in Europe turns into a real tragedy for many people with African and Asian origins, including Middle Easterners. A major humanitarian crisis caused by deaths (over 10% of...
Dancing with the Bear: Evaluating Possible S-400 Procurement of Turkey from Missile Defence Perspective
Turkey is one of the few countries conducting air defence almost solely with aircraft, despite sizable armed forces with a wide array of capabilities. As odd as it sounds, it has been a disturbing reality for military officials for a long time as the Armed Forces...
Operational Design of Cyber Warfare
Military experts are best known for their ability to plan. Planning is essential in all military activities due to the nature of war. War itself is an ill-structured problem. The better you plan, the less complex the problem gets and becomes well structured. Famous...
How Deterrent is NATO’S Cyber Posture?
In Ukraine, on December 2015, an energy facility was hit by Russian-affiliated cyber group, and 225.000 people between 1-6 hours were affected from this outage. (1) Outage assuming as first well documented successful cyber-attack on a power grid. This recent incident...
Was the US Election Hacked?
As usual, the world watched the United States elections on November 8. Donald Trump won the election and started as the 45th US president, contrary to expectations and surveys. The results of the elections surprised the international community. Meanwhile,...
How Can Turkey and Armenia be Good Neighbours?
Even though Turkey and Armenia have severe hostilities, the peaceful relations between ordinary Turks and Armenians have a very long history going back to even before Ottoman Empire. Until the late 19th century, these two ethnic groups lived at peace, and moreover,...
French Influence in Africa (Colonial Period)
France is a country that has always been influential in Africa. Unlike other states, the relations of France, which started before colonialism, have continued without interruption in her pré carré (sphere of influence). France attempted to establish relations with all...
What Will Be tactical / Equipment Changes and Requirements for Soldiers in the Future Urban Warfare?
“Master Euphrates tells bold and nice Sincere weeping in his eyes.” The counterterrorism struggle, which had been carried out in the mountains or the forests until recently, has now transformed into urban warfare. Some of the prominent reasons which caused this to...
Book Review: The United States of Europe
The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy* As European Union is currently having a hard time with several internal problems, such as BREXIT and the rise of national populist parties against the union, it is worth reviewing the famous book “The United States...
Turkey, EU, and the Refugee Crisis
As an indirect consequence of the Syrian conflict and the broader security environment in the Middle East, Europe has faced a serious refugee and migrant crisis in the last couple of years.1 This required intensive traffic between Western policy-makers and the Turkish...
Misconception About Terrorism
Our understanding of terrorism is mostly shaped by politicians, who sometimes arbitrarily use this term to stigmatise even people who are opposing their policies. Terrorism or terrorist violence, however, is just a violent tactic that is used by insurgent groups, and...
Rising Nationalism and the Role of the Leadership
The Great Depression of the 1930s had caused traumatic and devastating economic effects on citizens. The events of today’s international world, especially tendencies of states after the 2008 Economic Crisis, are only confirming the saying that “The history repeats...
“Fixed Structures and Functionalities” vs. “the Philosophy of Modular Design” in Hybrid Warfare Environment
The aim of this study is to propose a model by comparing “fixed force composition and classical HQ structures” with “a New modular design” that could increase and enhance capabilities and capacity of armed forces, in particular flexibility, adaptability, agility, and...
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