MODERN WARFARE

Key Takeaways Hedging is adaptive, not revisionist: Asia-Pacific allies are not abandoning the U.S.-led order; they are adjusting to uncertainty created by transactional alliance management. Transactional U.S. behavior accelerates diversification: Tariffs, conditional...

Key Takeaways Africa-First Is Symbolic, but Also Strategic: The annual ritual of China’s foreign minister starting the year in Africa is no longer mere symbolism. In 2026, it functions as a deliberate signal that Africa remains central to China’s external strategy at...

Key Takeaways Greenland has abruptly become a front-line issue in great-power competition, with renewed U.S. interest—driven by security positioning, military infrastructure, and rare-earth resources—reviving debates about sovereignty and alliance norms in the Arctic....

Key Takeaways Trump’s second-term strategy explicitly revives Monroe-style hemispheric dominance, defining the Western Hemisphere as a privileged U.S. sphere and treating migration, cartels, and Chinese influence as primary security threats. The regime-change...

Key Takeaways NATO’s core strategic assumption has changed irreversibly. The Alliance no longer treats major war as a distant contingency preceded by ample warning. Senior political, military, and intelligence leaders now operate on the premise that confrontation...

Key Takeaways A Shift to "Strategic Overdrive": The East Asian security landscape has moved beyond "managed competition" into a volatile four-way dynamic involving China, the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan. This new phase is characterized by the aggressive weaponization of...

Key Takeaways Centralization of Leadership: The plenum underscored Xi Jinping’s unchallenged role as the “core” of the Party, cementing his personal vision and ideology as the foundation for all major policy directions. Strategic Continuity: Rather than introducing...

Key Takeaways Unprecedented Military Purge: The expulsion of nine senior PLA generals—including CMC Vice-Chair He Weidong and Rocket Force commander Wang Houbin—marks China’s largest military purge in decades. It demonstrates Xi Jinping’s willingness to sacrifice even...

Key Takeaways A New Strategic Triangle: Since 2022, China, Russia, and North Korea have intensified coordination across political, military, and economic domains, forming a de facto anti-Western alignment—though without formal alliance structures. Russia–North Korea...

Introduction The United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) moved from episodic cooperation to a nascent trilateral architecture that aims to deter adversaries and sustain regional stability. This evolution traces back to the Camp David summit in August...

Key Takeaways China’s institutional push: Xi Jinping placed finance at the heart of the SCO’s future, reviving the idea of an SCO development bank, pledging aid and loans, and promoting local-currency trade. His goal is to give the bloc practical economic weight while...

Key Takeaways Resilient Growth Amid Challenges: China achieved a respectable 5.3% GDP growth in the first half of 2025, surpassing market expectations despite facing internal and external challenges. The growth rate underscores economic resilience, driven primarily by...

Key Takeaways Geostrategic Leverage: Pakistan’s location at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, along with access to the Arabian Sea through Gwadar Port, positions it as a critical hub for maritime trade, energy routes, and great power...

Key Takeaways Growing Bloc Dynamics: Russia’s strengthened alignment with North Korea signifies a new strategic front in East Asia, directly tying developments on the Korean Peninsula to geopolitical dynamics in Eastern Europe. Pyongyang's explicit support for...

Key Takeaways China’s Dual Engagement Strategy Is Under Severe StrainChina’s long-standing approach of maintaining strong ties with both Iran and Israel—anchored in trade, technology, energy, and diplomacy—faces unprecedented pressure following the 2025 Israel–Iran...

Key Takeaways The Global South is no longer a passive actor — In 2025, developing nations across Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and the Pacific are actively shaping global politics, economics, and security, moving from the periphery to the center of...

Key Takeaways Historic Re-engagement: President Trump's 2025 Middle East tour represented a significant U.S. re-engagement with key Gulf allies—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—focusing heavily on economic investment, security cooperation, and technological...

Key Takeaways China's 2025 national security white paper outlines a comprehensive and centralized vision of security that expands well beyond military defense to encompass political, economic, technological, environmental, and societal domains. The white paper is...

Key Takeaways: Geopolitical Alignment: Xi Jinping’s May 2025 visit to Russia highlights deepening Sino-Russian cooperation amid heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding the Ukraine war. Xi’s prominent role in Moscow’s Victory Day commemorations reinforced mutual...

Key Takeaways Xi Jinping’s April 2025 Southeast Asia tour marks a strategic deepening of China’s neighborhood diplomacy, with visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia showcasing Beijing’s evolving model of personalized, high-level engagement with the Global South....

Key Takeaways Information as Power Yuval Noah Harari’s Nexus argues that power stems from the ability to construct and sustain shared information networks—often based more on narrative coherence than on empirical truth. In the digital age, AI systems increasingly...

Much like Phileas Fogg in Jules Verne’s Around the World in 80 Days, Donald Trump has embarked on a whirlwind journey—only this one spans not continents for sport, but policies, alliances, and power plays with real global consequences. In just 80 days since reclaiming...

Executive Summary Security Realignments: The second Trump term will likely strain traditional alliances. In Europe, NATO’s cohesion could be undermined by U.S. demands for burden-sharing and hints of disengagement, prompting the EU to bolster...

Key Takeaways EU’s Strategic Response to Trump’s Policies: Trump's second-term "America First" agenda and confrontational stance toward European allies have forced the European Union to reconsider traditional alliances and strategically deepen...

The second Trump administration has ushered in a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, particularly in its approach to Russia. By deprioritizing full support for Ukraine and seeking a diplomatic resolution with Moscow, Trump’s...

Key Takeaways The US is stepping back from European security: For the first time in decades, Washington has signaled that Europe must assume primary responsibility for its own defense, reshaping NATO and altering the continent’s security...

Key Takeaways: Strategic Motives: Trump’s tariffs, aimed at reducing reliance on China and boosting domestic industry, mark a return to protectionism with broader economic and political implications. While the administration frames tariffs as a...

Key Takeaways Transatlantic Turbulence: The return of Donald Trump as U.S. president signals renewed challenges to U.S.-EU relations, including protectionist trade policies, skepticism toward NATO, unpredictable approaches to the Ukraine...

Key Takeaways A Historic Turning Point: The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime ends over five decades of authoritarian rule in Syria and opens the door to a new era of hope and uncertainty for the nation and the broader Middle East. The...

Key Takeaways: Hawkish Cabinet Appointments: President-elect Donald Trump has appointed a predominantly hawkish group of individuals to key cabinet positions, signaling a strategic pivot toward a more confrontational U.S. policy on China. Marco...

Key Takeaways Economic Competition: Trump is expected to bring back tariffs on China, pushing for economic independence. This could disrupt supply chains and impact economies across Asia. Tech Rivalry: The U.S.-China tech competition is likely...

Key Takeaways Ambitious Expansion and Global Influence: The 2024 BRICS Summit underscores the bloc's ambition to challenge the Western-led global system by advocating a more equitable and multipolar world order. The inclusion of 13 new partner...

Introduction The Global Strategic Trends Out to 2055  (GST7) report, published by the UK Ministry of Defence's Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), presents an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical, economic, and societal...