Introduction

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Quantum Computing (QC) are at the center of the escalating strategic competition between the United States and China. These technologies are reshaping military capabilities, economic dominance, and geopolitical influence, making AI development a key factor in national security and global power dynamics. As both nations strive for AI supremacy, their rivalry is increasingly defined by technological advancements, decoupling strategies, and regulatory challenges.

The AI arms race between the U.S. and China is not merely about technological progress—it is a contest for economic leadership, military superiority, and geopolitical influence. AI’s rapid integration into defense, intelligence, and economic sectors has heightened tensions, leading to significant investments in AI-driven defense systems, cyber warfare capabilities, and autonomous decision-making tools. QC, with its potential to revolutionize encryption and computational power, adds another layer of complexity, raising concerns about data security, intelligence gathering, and strategic stability.

This piece examines the role of AI and QC in U.S.-China great power competition, assessing their impact on national security, global governance, and economic leadership. It explores how these technologies are reshaping military strategies, trade policies, and international relations while analyzing the risks of an AI arms race and the challenges of establishing ethical and regulatory frameworks.

AI and QC in U.S.-China Competition

Technological dominance has long been a defining element of global power struggles, and today, AI and QC represent the latest battlegrounds in the U.S.-China strategic rivalry. These general-purpose technologies extend beyond conventional military applications, influencing economic policy, intelligence operations, and cyber capabilities. Their integration into national security frameworks is reshaping the balance of power, fostering both cooperation and competition between Washington and Beijing. The dual-use nature of AI and QC —where advances in civilian domains simultaneously contribute to military capabilities—further complicates the geopolitical landscape.

AI in Strategic Competition

AI is transforming the way nations conduct warfare, intelligence gathering, and cyber operations. It has become a crucial tool for enhancing battlefield decision-making, automating surveillance, and optimizing logistical operations. Both the U.S. and China recognize AI’s potential as a force multiplier, leading to unprecedented investments in defense applications.

Military and Defense Applications: The U.S. military has been integrating AI into a range of programs, including autonomous weapons, unmanned aerial systems, and battlefield analytics. The Office of the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer (CDAO) now leads the Pentagon’s AI initiatives, following the dissolution of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC) on June 1, 2022. The CDAO consolidates multiple AI-related offices, including the Defense Digital Service and the Office of Advancing Analytics, into a centralized hub for AI adoption, digital transformation, and data-driven decision-making across the Department of Defense. This restructuring reflects a broader effort to streamline AI integration into military operations, enhance operational efficiency, and optimize AI-driven battlefield strategies. In contrast, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is aggressively pursuing AI-powered autonomous weaponry, drone swarms, and robotic systems, aligning with President Xi Jinping’s broader goal of military modernization by 2049. Beijing’s state-led approach enables faster deployment of AI-enabled military technologies, increasing concerns about an AI-driven arms race and the erosion of human oversight in autonomous combat systems.
Cyber Warfare and Information Operations: AI-driven cyber capabilities are playing a critical role in offensive and defensive cyber strategies. The U.S. is leveraging AI for threat detection, automated incident response, and cyber deception techniques to counter adversarial cyber intrusions. Meanwhile, China has integrated AI into its cyber warfare doctrine, using machine learning algorithms to enhance cyber espionage, cyber-enabled economic coercion, and information warfare operations. AI-powered disinformation campaigns, deepfakes, and AI-generated content are increasingly becoming tools in China’s broader strategic influence campaigns, aimed at shaping public opinion and destabilizing adversaries.
AI in Intelligence and Surveillance: Both nations are using AI to revolutionize intelligence collection and analysis. The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) and the CIA are utilizing AI to process vast amounts of open-source intelligence (OSINT), satellite imagery, and intercepted communications to enhance situational awareness. In China, AI-driven surveillance technologies, such as facial recognition and predictive policing, are not only being used domestically for internal security but also exported to authoritarian regimes under initiatives like the Digital Silk Road, increasing Beijing’s geopolitical influence.
Autonomous and Unmanned Systems: AI-driven autonomy is redefining air, land, sea, and space operations. The U.S. military is deploying AI-enhanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), underwater drones, and ground robots for reconnaissance and combat missions. Similarly, China has developed AI-enabled UAVs such as the Wing Loong and CH-7 drones, which are being deployed for intelligence gathering and military deterrence. The PLA’s research into AI-powered swarm technology raises concerns about its ability to overwhelm adversary defenses through coordinated attacks.

Quantum Computing’s Strategic Edge

Quantum computing represents a paradigm shift in computational power, with the potential to disrupt encryption, military communications, and intelligence capabilities. As a result, both the U.S. and China are racing to achieve quantum supremacy —where a quantum computer outperforms the most advanced classical supercomputers.

Cryptography and Cybersecurity Implications: One of the most pressing concerns surrounding QC is its ability to break existing encryption protocols, rendering conventional cryptographic security obsolete. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is actively developing post-quantum cryptographic standards to safeguard sensitive military and financial data from quantum decryption threats. Meanwhile, China has invested heavily in quantum communication technologies, notably launching the Micius quantum satellite, which successfully demonstrated quantum-encrypted communications, positioning Beijing as a leader in quantum-secure communications.
Quantum Supremacy and Computing Power: The U.S. has made significant advances in QC through companies like Google, IBM, and Rigetti, with Google’s Sycamore processor achieving a breakthrough in quantum speed. The U.S. Department of Defense’s DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative aims to ensure that American QC remains at the forefront of global innovation. However, China has rapidly closed the gap, with its Jiuzhang quantum computer reportedly surpassing Google’s Sycamore in certain computational tasks. The Chinese government’s massive state-backed investment in quantum research, estimated to exceed $10 billion, highlights its ambitions to lead the field.
Quantum Radar and Military Applications: The PLA is exploring quantum radar technology, which could nullify existing stealth capabilities by detecting aircraft and submarines that evade traditional radar systems. If successful, this could undermine the U.S. military’s reliance on stealth platforms such as the F-35 fighter jet and Virginia-class submarines. The potential for quantum sensors to provide ultra-precise navigation in GPS-denied environments also raises concerns about China’s ability to operate in contested regions, such as the South China Sea, with greater strategic advantage.
Economic and Industrial Impact: Beyond national security, QC is expected to revolutionize industries such as pharmaceuticals, materials science, and financial modeling. The U.S. remains the global leader in quantum commercialization, but China’s state-driven approach has enabled it to rapidly integrate quantum technology into key industrial sectors. If China achieves quantum breakthroughs ahead of the U.S., it could gain a decisive edge in economic and technological competition, shifting the balance of power in critical supply chains.

AI and QC are no longer futuristic technologies—they are central to the U.S.-China competition for global supremacy. While AI is already shaping modern warfare, intelligence operations, and cybersecurity strategies, QC remains an emerging domain with the potential to disrupt existing power structures. The integration of these technologies into military and economic frameworks will continue to drive tensions, increasing the urgency for strategic countermeasures, regulatory safeguards, and international cooperation to mitigate risks associated with their rapid advancement.

Strategic Implications of U.S.-China AI Rivalry

The AI competition between the United States and China is not merely a technological race but a defining element of 21st-century great power rivalry. AI’s integration into national security, economic strategies, and military operations presents profound challenges, including strategic vulnerabilities, ethical dilemmas, and governance issues. The rapid deployment of AI-driven technologies raises concerns about escalation risks, regulatory gaps, and the potential for unintended consequences.

Cybersecurity and AI Vulnerabilities

AI-powered cyber warfare has intensified cybersecurity threats, as both nations invest heavily in AI-enhanced offensive and defensive capabilities.

Offensive Cyber Operations: AI enables sophisticated cyber-attacks, including real-time adaptation, evasion techniques, and AI-powered malware. China has been accused of leveraging AI-driven cyber tools for espionage against U.S. government agencies, corporations, and research institutions. In response, the U.S. has developed AI-enabled cyber defense programs to protect critical infrastructure, particularly in energy, finance, and telecommunications.
Defensive AI Applications: AI-driven cybersecurity systems enhance threat detection, automate incident response, and analyze large datasets to identify vulnerabilities. Both the U.S. Cyber Command and China’s Strategic Support Force (SSF) are integrating AI into cyber defense strategies to counter growing threats.
Infrastructure Security Risks: AI’s role in critical infrastructure, from power grids to financial systems, introduces vulnerabilities. AI-driven cyberattacks could disrupt essential services or manipulate markets, posing national security risks. The potential for autonomous AI systems to escalate cyber conflicts without human oversight raises concerns about crisis stability.

Legal and Ethical Considerations

AI’s application in military and intelligence operations introduces complex legal and ethical challenges, exacerbated by the absence of a global regulatory framework.

Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS): Both nations are developing AI-powered autonomous weapons, including drones and robotic combat systems. The lack of international agreements governing fully autonomous lethal systems raises ethical concerns about human oversight and the risks of unintended escalation.
AI in Intelligence and Surveillance: The U.S. employs AI for counterterrorism and intelligence analysis, while China integrates AI into domestic surveillance, including facial recognition and predictive policing. This raises concerns about AI-enabled authoritarianism, mass surveillance, and human rights implications.
Escalation Risks and Crisis Management: AI’s role in military command and control introduces uncertainty in crisis scenarios. The risk of misinterpretation or unintended escalation due to automated decision-making underscores the need for international AI governance mechanisms.

Technological Decoupling and AI Governance

The U.S.-China AI rivalry has accelerated technological decoupling, with both nations seeking to reduce dependency on each other’s AI ecosystems. This fragmentation has long-term implications for innovation, economic competition, and security.

U.S. Restrictions on China’s AI Capabilities: The U.S. has imposed stringent export controls on advanced semiconductor technology and AI-related hardware, restricting China’s access to high-performance GPUs essential for AI model training. The Biden administration has expanded these measures to include semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
China’s Drive for Indigenous Innovation: In response to U.S. sanctions, China has intensified investments in semiconductor research, quantum computing, and AI chip production to reduce reliance on Western suppliers. The development of AI models like DeepSeek-R1 highlights Beijing’s progress in overcoming external technological constraints.
Impact on Global AI Innovation: The fragmentation of AI research threatens global innovation and international collaboration on AI safety, governance, and ethics. While both nations seek technological leadership, their rivalry risks creating a race to the bottom in terms of security and regulatory oversight.

The AI Arms Race: Risks and Existential Threats

The rapid acceleration of AI development in the United States and China is fueling an arms race with profound security, ethical, and existential risks. AI’s growing role in military strategy intensifies competition, mirroring historical arms races where nations prioritized technological parity over safety and stability. The absence of clear governance structures further complicates control over the proliferation of increasingly autonomous and powerful AI systems.

The Dangers of an Unregulated AI Arms Race

Escalation Without Oversight: The urgency to maintain technological superiority may lead both nations to accelerate AI deployments without fully assessing their long-term implications. Governments and military planners could prioritize speed over caution, deploying AI-powered autonomous weapons and decision-support systems without rigorous testing for reliability, alignment, and ethical considerations.
Cutting Corners on AI Safety: As Sam Meacham warns, the fear of falling behind could push nations to cut corners on AI safety, particularly in high-risk domains such as nuclear command and control, cybersecurity, and autonomous weapons. Poorly aligned AI systems may trigger unintended escalation, malfunctions, or unpredictable behaviors beyond human control.
AI in Strategic Decision-Making: AI-driven military systems are being designed to analyze battlefield data, recommend actions, and even autonomously engage targets. However, delegating such high-stakes decisions to AI increases the risk of misinterpretation and unintended escalation. If AI miscalculates an adversary’s intent or misinterprets strategic signals, it could provoke military responses that human operators might have otherwise avoided.

AI Alignment: The Challenge of Controlling Advanced AI Systems

Ensuring AI operates within human-defined parameters—known as AI alignment—remains a critical challenge, particularly for highly autonomous and self-learning systems.

Lack of Predictability: As AI systems grow more complex, their decision-making processes become less transparent. The “black box” nature of deep learning models makes it difficult to understand how AI reaches certain conclusions, increasing the risk of unintended actions, especially in military and security settings.
Failure Scenarios and Unintended Consequences: AI may optimize for objectives that deviate from human intent. For example, an AI tasked with minimizing battlefield threats might interpret this as eliminating all perceived risks, including civilians and infrastructure, if constraints are not carefully defined.
Cybersecurity and AI Weaponization: AI-driven cyber warfare introduces new risks, as autonomous cyberattacks can evolve and adapt in real time. AI-designed cyber operations operating beyond human oversight could lead to large-scale disruptions. Establishing international norms is essential to prevent uncontrolled escalation and proliferation of AI-driven cyber threats.

The Need for AI Governance and International Cooperation

Despite the dangers of an AI arms race, no globally recognized framework governs the military use of AI. Unlike Cold War-era nuclear arms control agreements, AI governance remains fragmented and politically contentious.

Diplomatic Challenges: Deep strategic mistrust between the U.S. and China hampers efforts to establish bilateral agreements on AI safety. Unlike nuclear treaties with clear verification mechanisms, AI development is software-driven and difficult to monitor externally, complicating compliance and enforcement.
The Role of International Organizations: Efforts by the UN, the EU, and other global bodies to regulate AI in warfare face resistance from major powers. Proposals advocating a ban on fully autonomous lethal weapons lack commitment from the U.S. and China, both citing strategic deterrence and military necessity.
Risk Mitigation Strategies: While comprehensive AI governance may be elusive in the near term, risk mitigation measures—such as bilateral dialogues, AI safety research collaborations, and confidence-building initiatives—can help prevent AI-driven escalation. Establishing clear protocols for military AI use, defining red lines for autonomous systems, and enhancing transparency are crucial steps toward reducing risks.

Conclusion

The U.S.-China competition in artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing (QC) is reshaping global power dynamics. AI is already transforming military strategy, intelligence operations, and economic policies, while QC has the potential to disrupt cybersecurity, cryptography, and computing power. Technological dominance in these fields is not just a matter of economic progress but a critical pillar of national security and geopolitical influence.

The rapid pace of AI development—particularly in autonomous weapons, cyber warfare, and intelligence analysis—has triggered an arms race reminiscent of the Cold War nuclear buildup. However, unlike nuclear weapons, AI’s influence does not depend on physical deployment; its integration into military and strategic decision-making raises the risk of miscalculation, escalation, and unintended conflict. The absence of clear governance frameworks, coupled with the complexity of AI-driven decision-making, heightens volatility in U.S.-China competition. Without proactive international norms, AI’s role in warfare could become increasingly destabilizing.

China’s AI advancements, including DeepSeek-R1, illustrate that despite U.S. export controls on semiconductor technology, Beijing continues to innovate and adapt. Rather than stalling China’s progress, these restrictions may be accelerating its push for technological self-sufficiency. China’s growing investment in alternative AI training methods and domestic talent development suggests that containment strategies alone are unlikely to curb its AI ambitions.

In QC, China’s progress—evident in the Micius satellite, Jiuzhang quantum computer, and multi-billion-dollar investments—demonstrates its long-term vision for quantum dominance. If Beijing achieves breakthroughs in quantum decryption and secure communication, it could upend global cybersecurity, posing risks not just to the U.S. but to the entire international system reliant on encrypted data. This underscores the urgent need for global governance in quantum technology before it disrupts existing security architectures.

As the U.S. and China decouple their technological ecosystems, the world is moving toward a bifurcated AI and QC landscape, where competing systems emerge with limited interoperability. While this fragmentation may drive innovation, it also increases strategic risks and reduces avenues for cooperation on AI safety, ethics, and governance. Unlike previous technological rivalries, AI’s capacity for autonomous decision-making introduces unprecedented challenges that demand urgent diplomatic engagement.

Moving forward, the U.S. must balance competition with cooperation to prevent AI and quantum technologies from spiraling into an uncontrolled arms race. While maintaining a technological edge is critical, excessive reliance on containment could push China toward deeper technological independence rather than limiting its AI progress. A combination of regulatory measures, strategic investments, and multilateral governance frameworks is necessary to mitigate existential risks and prevent AI-driven conflict escalation.

In the absence of clear international AI governance, the risks associated with AI and QC will continue to grow. If left unchecked, AI-driven military automation, cyber warfare, and quantum decryption could destabilize global security beyond human control. Policymakers must navigate this competition carefully, ensuring that AI and QC advancements contribute to national security while maintaining global stability.

The Age of AI in U.S.-China Great Power Competition: Strategic Implications, Risks, and Global Governance