by Timucin Ibu | Mar 26, 2026 | Commentary, Defence & Security
Human in the Loop In today’s fast-evolving security environment, military commanders often face overwhelming complexity. Hybrid threats, multi-domain operations, cognitive warfare, and great-power competition demand rapid, accurate decisions under high uncertainty....
by Transatlantic Task Force | Mar 20, 2026 | Commentary, Geopolitics & Great Power Politics
Key Takeaways Duration is the decisive variable: The economically sustainable length of disruption at Hormuz defines the feasible duration of the conflict itself. The shock is historically unprecedented: A simultaneous disruption of ~20% of global oil and LNG flows...
by Transatlantic Task Force | Mar 19, 2026 | Commentary, Geopolitics & Great Power Politics
Key Takeaways The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has transformed a regional war into a global energy and economic crisis by disrupting roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. The most significant strategic consequence is not only the blockade itself, but the...
by Transatlantic Task Force | Mar 11, 2026 | Commentary, Geopolitics & Great Power Politics
Key Takeaways Recognition of systemic change: Von der Leyen frames the current international environment as a structural transformation rather than a temporary crisis, requiring a reassessment of European foreign policy assumptions. Limits of normative power: The...
by Timucin Ibu | Feb 25, 2026 | Commentary, Defence & Security
Key Takeaways Spending is no longer hypothetical. Fiscal rules have shifted and EU lending tools are active; the rearmament cycle is underway. SAFE finances acceleration, not integration. It moves money and incentivises joint procurement but leaves sovereignty, force...
by Asia Pacific Task Force | Feb 24, 2026 | Commentary, Defence & Security, Geopolitics & Great Power Politics
Key Takeaways Autonomy is being pursued through embeddedness, not distance. India’s strategy is to deepen selective interdependence across security, technology, trade, and materials in order to multiply options rather than avoid alignment. Defence cooperation is...
