Introduction

The Global Strategic Trends Out to 2055  (GST7) report, published by the UK Ministry of Defence’s Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), presents an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical, economic, and societal transformations expected to shape the world out to 2055. Now in its seventh edition, this comprehensive document serves as a strategic foresight tool designed to inform long-term decision-making for policymakers, particularly in defense and security. By analyzing emerging trends and drivers of change, the report aims to prepare governments, institutions, and other stakeholders for the opportunities and challenges of a highly interconnected and volatile future.

Among the wide array of topics covered in GST 7, one of the most critical is the evolving nature of great power competition, particularly the strategic rivalry between China and the United States. The report situates this competition as one of the defining features of the international system over the next three decades. China’s rapid economic growth, military modernization, technological advancements, and growing global influence are leading to a significant reconfiguration of the global order. These developments have brought China into direct competition with the United States, which, despite its enduring economic and military power, faces challenges in maintaining its position as the preeminent global leader.

GST 7 emphasizes that this great power rivalry will be marked by competition not only in traditional arenas such as military strength and economic dominance but also in emerging domains like technological innovation, cyberspace, and space exploration. Moreover, the report highlights that China’s strategic ambitions extend beyond mere competition with the U.S. China is actively seeking to reshape global governance and multilateral institutions, presenting a clear challenge to the Western-led liberal international order. This ambition is evidenced by China’s increasing engagement in regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, as well as its efforts to offer alternative models of economic and political governance through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

As the GST 7 report outlines, this evolving dynamic between China and the United States is not limited to their bilateral relations. It is likely to have profound implications for global stability, influencing regional security architectures, economic partnerships, and geopolitical alliances. The rivalry also risks escalating tensions in strategic flashpoints such as the South China Sea and Taiwan, where military confrontations between the two powers could have far-reaching consequences.

Given the breadth of these potential impacts, understanding the scope and trajectory of China’s rise is crucial for anticipating the future balance of power. This assessment paper, grounded in the analysis presented by GST 7, seeks to explore the dimensions of China’s rise within the broader context of great power competition. Specifically, it will examine China’s strategic ambitions, its economic and military advancements, its role in reshaping multilateralism, and the security implications of its growing influence. By evaluating these factors, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of China’s trajectory as a global power and the risks and opportunities it presents for the future international order.

China’s Strategic Ambitions

According to the GST 7 report, China’s strategic ambitions are deeply rooted in its desire to restore its historical position as a dominant global power, a vision that is closely aligned with President Xi Jinping’s goal of achieving the “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation. The report emphasizes that China’s rise is not merely about economic prosperity, but rather about reshaping the global order in a way that reflects China’s values, governance models, and interests​. This ambition has been central to China’s foreign policy decisions, as it seeks to assert its influence across multiple dimensions: economically, militarily, and diplomatically.

Economic Power and the Belt and Road Initiative

A cornerstone of China’s strategic ambitions is its global economic outreach, most notably through the BRI. GST 7 highlights the BRI as a key instrument through which China is expanding its geopolitical influence, particularly in regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. The initiative has allowed China to establish a web of economic dependencies by financing and constructing critical infrastructure projects across the developing world​. Through this network, China is not only securing access to valuable resources and markets, but it is also enhancing its ability to shape regional political dynamics by binding countries into economic partnerships that extend Beijing’s strategic influence.

The GST 7 report argues that China’s ambitions extend beyond conventional economic power. By integrating developing nations into its economic orbit, China is effectively creating a parallel structure to the Western-dominated international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. This “economic statecraft” enables China to offer alternatives to the governance models promoted by the West, reinforcing Beijing’s long-term goal of providing an alternative global order​.

Technological Leadership

Another critical component of China’s rise, as highlighted in GST 7, is its drive to become a global leader in cutting-edge technologies. The report emphasizes that China views technological supremacy as essential to its strategic ambitions, both for domestic development and global influence. The country’s substantial investments in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, 5G networks, and cybersecurity reflect a broader strategy to gain a competitive edge over its rivals, particularly the United States​.

China’s push for technological leadership is not limited to commercial technologies. GST 7 stresses that China is also focusing on military technologies, including advancements in cyber warfare, space capabilities, and hypersonic weapons. These developments are seen as integral to China’s goal of modernizing its military and enhancing its ability to project power beyond its borders​. By securing a technological edge, China seeks to offset U.S. military dominance, particularly in strategic regions such as the Indo-Pacific, where the two powers are increasingly in direct competition.

Diplomatic and Multilateral Engagement

Diplomatically, China has increasingly positioned itself as a leader of the Global South, leveraging its economic and military power to build alliances and partnerships across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The GST 7 report notes that China is working to reshape global governance by promoting multilateral institutions that better reflect the interests of emerging powers​. Through organizations like the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China is challenging Western-dominated institutions and promoting a vision of global governance that is more aligned with its own principles of sovereignty and non-interference.

Great Power Competition with the U.S.

The rivalry between China and the United States is a central theme in the report, which identifies this competition as one of the defining features of global politics out to 2055. As China continues its rapid ascent, the U.S. faces the challenge of maintaining its preeminent position in an increasingly multipolar world. This section of the assessment explores the key domains in which this great power competition is playing out—military, economic, and technological—while also considering the strategic flashpoints that could escalate tensions between the two powers.

Military Competition and Strategic Flashpoints

GST 7 highlights that military competition between China and the U.S. is intensifying, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s efforts to modernize its military are seen as part of a broader strategy to assert its dominance in this strategic region. The report notes that China has invested heavily in expanding its naval capabilities, including the development of aircraft carriers, submarines, and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems. These advancements are designed to challenge U.S. military power in key areas such as the South China Sea, which Beijing views as critical to its security and economic interests​.

The South China Sea, in particular, is identified as a potential flashpoint in the GST 7 report. China’s extensive territorial claims in the region have already led to increased tensions with neighboring countries, and the U.S. has responded by conducting freedom of navigation operations to challenge China’s claims. The report warns that any miscalculation in this region could escalate into a broader conflict between the two powers, given the strategic importance of the South China Sea as a major maritime route​.

Similarly, Taiwan is highlighted as another potential trigger for conflict. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. The U.S., on the other hand, has maintained its strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan but has continued to provide military support to the island. GST 7 suggests that tensions over Taiwan are likely to increase as China continues to assert its claim, and any military confrontation over the island could have profound consequences for regional and global stability​.

Technological Rivalry

In addition to military competition, the GST 7 report underscores the growing technological rivalry between China and the United States. The two powers are locked in a battle for supremacy in emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and 5G/6G networks. China has made significant investments in these areas, viewing technological leadership as essential to both its economic future and national security.

The report emphasizes that this technological rivalry extends beyond purely commercial interests. Both the U.S. and China recognize that dominance in key technologies will confer strategic advantages in the global power competition. For China, technological leadership is seen as a means to secure military superiority, as advanced technologies like AI and quantum computing have the potential to revolutionize warfare. The development of advanced cyber capabilities is also central to this competition, with both countries engaging in cyber operations aimed at undermining each other’s critical infrastructure and technological assets​.

The GST 7 report points out that the technological competition between China and the U.S. is not confined to the domestic or bilateral sphere. Both nations are actively working to extend their technological influence globally. China’s expansion of its 5G network infrastructure through companies like Huawei has raised significant concerns in the West, where it is viewed as a potential tool for espionage and cyber warfare. Similarly, China’s growing role in global supply chains for critical technologies like semiconductors has led the U.S. to adopt a more protectionist stance, seeking to curb Chinese access to key technological inputs​.

Economic Competition and Global Influence

Economically, the GST 7 report highlights the fundamental competition between China’s state-driven economic model and the U.S.-led liberal capitalist order. While the U.S. continues to be a major global economic power, China’s rise has been marked by its ability to leverage state-controlled enterprises and large-scale infrastructure projects, particularly through the BRI, to expand its influence globally.

The report notes that this economic competition is not limited to securing markets and resources but also involves shaping the rules of the global economic system. China’s increasing involvement in international financial institutions and trade agreements, combined with its growing influence in organizations like the World Trade Organization (WTO), signals its desire to reshape the global economic architecture in a way that reflects its own values and interests​. This presents a direct challenge to the U.S.-dominated global economic order, which has historically promoted free trade and open markets.

Strategic Implications for Global Stability

The GST 7 report concludes that the intensifying competition between China and the United States is likely to have far-reaching implications for global stability. As both powers continue to vie for dominance in military, technological, and economic spheres, the risk of strategic miscalculation increases. GST 7 warns that the world may witness a new era of heightened tensions, where regional conflicts could escalate into broader confrontations involving major powers​.

The report also highlights the potential for alliances and partnerships to shift as a result of this competition. Countries that have traditionally aligned themselves with either the U.S. or China may find themselves forced to choose sides or adopt more flexible, non-aligned policies in order to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape. This realignment of global power structures could lead to new geopolitical blocs and alliances, further complicating the already volatile international order.

Strategic and Security Implications

As China’s rise continues to reshape global power dynamics, the GST 7 report underscores the significant strategic and security implications of this development. The report highlights that China’s assertive foreign policy and military modernization efforts are driving new security challenges, not just for the United States but for the global order as a whole. These challenges are most evident in key regions like the Indo-Pacific and in contested global commons such as cyberspace and space, where China is actively working to expand its strategic influence. The implications of China’s rise extend beyond mere competition for dominance; they include risks of heightened tensions, potential conflicts, and a reordering of global alliances.

Military Modernization and the Risk of Conflict

One of the most concerning aspects of China’s rise, as detailed in GST 7, is its rapid military modernization, which has transformed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a formidable force. The report emphasizes that China’s investments in naval, space, and cyber capabilities are aimed at counterbalancing U.S. military power, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region​. China’s A2/AD strategy, designed to limit the operational reach of U.S. forces in the event of a conflict, is a central component of its military posture. The deployment of advanced missile systems, modern aircraft carriers, and increasingly capable submarines is intended to challenge U.S. dominance in the region and assert Chinese control over critical maritime areas like the South China Sea.

The report identifies the South China Sea as one of the primary flashpoints for potential conflict between China and the U.S., given the strategic importance of the region for both economic and military reasons​. China’s expansive territorial claims, which overlap with those of several Southeast Asian nations, have already led to several confrontations, and GST 7 warns that any further escalation could lead to broader regional or even global conflict. The U.S., through its freedom of navigation operations, has sought to challenge China’s claims, further raising the risk of military miscalculation.

Another critical area of concern is Taiwan, which remains a central issue in China’s strategic calculations. GST 7 notes that China has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification with Taiwan, and as the U.S. continues to provide military support to the island, the risk of a direct confrontation grows​. Any conflict over Taiwan would have profound implications for regional and global security, as both China and the U.S. would likely be drawn into a protracted and highly destabilizing conflict.

Emerging Domains: Space and Cybersecurity

In addition to traditional military domains, GST 7 highlights China’s significant advancements in emerging areas such as space and cybersecurity. China’s ambitions in space are particularly notable, with the country seeking to establish itself as a major space power by developing satellite networks, space exploration programs, and anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities​. The report suggests that China views space not only as a frontier for scientific and economic development but also as a critical domain for military operations, where the ability to control or disrupt satellite communications could confer a significant strategic advantage.

Similarly, in the domain of cybersecurity, GST 7 emphasizes that China has become a leading player in cyber operations, both for defense and offense. China’s cyber capabilities are a central component of its broader strategy to undermine U.S. technological superiority and protect its own critical infrastructure. The report warns that the potential for cyber-attacks to disrupt key military and civilian systems is growing, particularly as both China and the U.S. invest in new technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. The increasing frequency and sophistication of cyber-attacks also raise the risk of unintended escalations that could spill over into more direct forms of conflict.

The Global Realignment of Alliances and Power Blocs

GST 7 also addresses the broader geopolitical implications of China’s rise, particularly in terms of the shifting alliances and power blocs that are emerging as a result of great power competition. As China continues to expand its influence in regions such as Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, it is actively building new partnerships and alliances that challenge the traditional Western-dominated global order. The BRI is a key example of how China is using economic leverage to create dependencies and build strategic relationships with a wide range of countries​.

The report suggests that these new alliances are not just economic in nature but have important strategic and security dimensions. For instance, China’s deepening ties with Russia, Iran, and other countries that share its opposition to U.S. hegemony could lead to the formation of a new geopolitical bloc that seeks to challenge Western influence across multiple regions​ This realignment of global power could result in a more fragmented and multipolar world, where regional powers and non-state actors play a more significant role in shaping international relations.

At the same time, GST 7 points out that China’s growing influence is leading to a recalibration of alliances among traditional U.S. allies. Countries in Europe and Asia are increasingly seeking to balance their economic ties with China against their security partnerships with the U.S.​. This balancing act has led to the emergence of more fluid and flexible alliances, where countries are less likely to align strictly with one great power and are more inclined to pursue strategic autonomy. The implications of this shift are profound, as it could weaken the coherence of long-standing alliances such as NATO and the U.S.-Japan security pact, thereby complicating efforts to contain China’s rise.

China’s Domestic Pressures and Long-Term Stability

While much of the focus in GST 7 is on China’s external ambitions, the report also highlights the domestic challenges that could impact China’s ability to sustain its rise over the long term. Slowing economic growth, demographic pressures such as an aging population, and rising social unrest are all identified as potential constraints on China’s future trajectory​. The report warns that these internal pressures could undermine China’s ability to project power internationally, particularly if they lead to greater instability at home.

GST 7 suggests that how China manages these domestic challenges will be a key factor in determining its long-term role in great power competition. If China is able to maintain social stability and continue its economic growth, it is likely to remain a dominant player on the global stage. However, if internal instability weakens China’s leadership, it could face significant challenges in sustaining its current trajectory, thereby altering the balance of power in global competition​.

Conclusion: A New Era of Strategic Competition

In conclusion, the Global Strategic Trends 7 report paints a picture of a world increasingly shaped by the strategic rivalry between China and the United States. China’s rise, characterized by its military modernization, technological advancements, and diplomatic initiatives, poses significant challenges to the existing global order. The competition between these two powers extends across multiple domains—military, economic, technological, and diplomatic—and is likely to define the global strategic landscape for decades to come. As both countries seek to assert their dominance, the risk of conflict, particularly in regions like the Indo-Pacific, remains high. Moreover, the shifting alliances and power blocs that are emerging as a result of this competition are likely to lead to a more fragmented and multipolar world, where the traditional dominance of Western powers is increasingly contested.

Ultimately, GST 7 suggests that the world is entering a new era of great power competition, one in which the rise of China will continue to challenge the foundations of the current international order. The strategic and security implications of this shift are profound, requiring careful management to avoid unintended escalations and ensure global stability in the face of mounting geopolitical tensions.