The Trump presidency has set into motion the geostrategic and political-economic dynamics that have begun to morph the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) into Major Power Warfareâ or what the US State Department euphemistically calls Great Power Competition.
Since the September 11, 2001 Al Qaeda attacks, the George W. Bush and Obama administrations took out a blank check to engage in âcounter-terrorismâ operations in at least 80 different countriesâat the cost of $6.4 trillion and rising. These US-led or US-backed military interventions have taken the form of a âwhack-a-moleâ doctrine of striking both âterroristâ organizations and ârogueâ statesâmany of which had nothing to do with Al Qaeda.
And instead of quelling âterrorism,â these military interventions have directly or indirectly helped to spread GWOT from Afghanistan and Central Asia, to Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, North Africa and the Sahel region, Central Africa, the Philippines, and increasingly to the US-backed Saudi-led war in Yemen, Somalia (al-Shabaab) and the Horn of Africa.
And these interventions have not succeeded in building even adequately sustainable states and societies. And this is not to overlook the fact that GWOT and Major Power Warfare are beginning to merge with the âWar on Drugsâ in Latin America.
Troop withdrawals and redeployments
President Trump has blamed his predecessors for the âforever warsâ and has promised US troop withdrawalsâor really redeploymentsâwith respect to Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, as well as Germany.
In Afghanistan, a US troop withdrawal from 4,500 to 2,500 by January 2021 could result in a Taliban resurgence and eventual seizure of powerâif peace talks mediated by Qatar fail. A full US withdrawal will most likely leave the regional powers in charge, so that India, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and China will need to deal with a new Afghan leadership through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to the exclusion of the US, while the Taliban will continue to battle its rival Daesh (the so-called Islamic State).
With the Trump administration augmenting cruise missile strikes since 2017, the failed US military intervention in Somaliaâwith significant civilian causalitiesâhas not halted the attacks of the pan-Islamist organization, Al-Shabaab. Trump has now opted to redeploy most US troops in Somalia to Kenya and Djibouti.
And in addition to the horrific Saudi-led war in Yemen versus the Huthi Ansar Allah movement seen as backed by Iran, the Tigray conflict with Ethiopia threatens an even wider regional war on the Horn of Africaâif a new concerted UN-backed Contact Group approach to Yemen and if a national/ international Ethiopian dialogue cannot soon be implemented.
In essence, in order to limit American causalities (only), Trump has generally preferred an even heavier use of cruise missile strikes and deployment of special forces against perceived âterroristâ threats than did presidents Bush and Obamaâyet at considerable costs to the civilian populations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia, among others.
Given the fact the Trump administration has not fully engaged in negotiating truly concerted diplomatic settlements with the states and anti-state movements most concerned, the withdrawal of US forces from these countries risks further exacerbating these conflicts.
A triple risk
In essence, Trumpâs âglobal strategyâ has sought to refocus on the major âthreatsâ of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea while concurrently engaging in a new naval and aerial âoffshoreâ strategy by limiting the exposure of US forces on land where possible.
There is nevertheless a triple risk involved in the effort to shift from GWOT to Major Power Warfare.
- Trumpâs oxymoronic âPeace through Strengthâ approach has further destabilized ongoing regional conflicts and opened the door to military interventions by rival partiesâmuch as has already proven the case with Russian, and then Turkish, military intervention in Syria.
- Trumpâs policies appear to be provoking, not âdeterring,â the real possibility of a full-scale Major Power War by pressing China, Russia, Iran and North Korea into a closer Eurasian Axis.
- Trumpâs unilateralist (kleptocratic, nepotistic and narcissist) doctrine has not only alienated US rivals, but US allies as wellâmaking it more difficult for Biden and future US administrations to implement a truly concerted and multilateral diplomacy intended to achieve global peace.
NATO and the Russian and Chinese backlash
NATOâs promises to expand its full membership to Ukraine and Georgia, combined with EU efforts to draw Kiev into a new political-economic and security partnership, have helped to provoke a nationalist backlash in Russia that resulted in Moscowâs preclusive annexation of Crimea and political-military interference in eastern Ukraine in 2014. In the aftermath of Russiaâs military interventions in 2014, Washington has sought to reinforce the NATO alliance by demanding even greater Allied defense spending despite Trumpâs disparaging remarks about the Alliance. With respect to Germany, Trump has attempted to force Berlin to spend a much greater amount than 1.3% of its GDP on defense. Trump has additionally threatened to redeploy US forces from Germany to Poland (to what was previously called âFort Trumpâ) or elsewhere in eastern Europe. The risk here is that a permanent US or NATO troop relocation to eastern Europe could violate the 1997 NATO-Russia Foundation Act in which NATO promised not to deploy additional combat forces or nuclear weapons on the territories of new NATO members.
US efforts to boost NATO spending have further pressed Russia toward a closer defense relationship with China despite disputes over the Polar Silk Road and Chinese irredentist claims to Russian territories in the Far East, among others. The fear of possible Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) disaggregation has led Russia to further securitize controls over its alliesâwith Chinese backing despite (or because of) significant social protest in Kyrgyzstan and Belarusâeven if Beijing appears indifferent as to whether the Lukashenko dictatorship remains in power. In effect, the fear of regime change caused by âdemocracyâ or âindependenceâ movementsâseen as supported by the US and EUâhas been driving Russia and China closer together. Concurrently, US efforts to boost quadrilateral Indian-Japanese-Australian military ties, plus US support for Japan and South Korea against North Korea, in what Obama had called the âpivot to Asia,â have also helped to press Russia and China into a closer defense relationship given the Pentagonâs build-up of forces in the Indo-Pacific.
Although both Russia and China still deny an intent to forge a military alliance, Moscow tends to back Chinaâs position on North Korea, while Beijing has been building a new Eurasian Axis with Russia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Chinaâs global âBelt and Roadâ initiative.
For its part, Beijing fears that a number of domestic socio-political movements are challenging Communist Party rule. Beijing believes that Trump is more strongly supporting Taiwanâs claims to âindependenceâ than did previous US administrations while also supporting âindependenceâ or âdemocracyâ movements in Tibet, Xinjiang province, and Inner Mongolia, as well as in Hong Kong.
Washington sees the threats of Chinaâs President-for-life Xi Jinping in January 2019 to unify with Taiwan by force if necessaryâ in an attempt to control the sea lines of communication from Japan to the Arab-Persian Gulf, if not provide blue water access for Chinaâs nuclear submarinesâas a potential casus belli.
Shifting alliances
As Trumpâs defense policy morphs away from GWOT, significant powers such as Turkey and India represent wild cards that could flip toward either Russia and China or toward the USâas they begin to assert their regional interests and attempt to âbalanceâ between these rival coalitions.
For its part, NATO-member Turkeyâwhich is now engaged militarily in conflicts in northern Syria, the Caucasus in support of Azerbaijan, the eastern Mediterranean vs. Greece, and in Libyaâappears to be shifting closer to Russia and China. Ankara finds itself confronted with a coalition of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, as well as France and EU-member Greece, with the US and other European states unable or unwilling to negotiate these disputes.
By contrast, although it is hesitant to alienate its close ties to Russia, India now appears to be shifting closer to the US, France, Japan and Australia after its Himalaya conflicts with China.
Alliance against Iran and Turkey
Perhaps most immediately, the Trump administrationâs decision to drop out of the Iran nuclear accord, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), risks a wider conflict that could draw Israel and the US into a future regional war.
The Trump administration has promoted an âencirclingâ Israeli-Saudi-UAE-Egypt-Bahrain alliance against Iranâs significant regional influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemenâand more indirectly to counter NATO-member Turkeyâs expanding influence. While the Trump administration may welcome close ties between Israel and Gulf monarchies, that may not be the case for the general Arab/Islamic population in the wider Middle East. Failure to bring the Palestinians into the âAbraham Accordsâ between Israel and the Gulf states in what I have called a âconfederal solutionâ (as a variant of the two-state solution) could prove fatal for regional peace.
One major risk is that a close Israel-Arab Gulf state connection will fuel the propaganda of Al-Qaeda and Daesh-type movements throughout the region, including within Saudi Arabia itself. A second risk is unilateral Israeli military intervention against Iranâs presumed nuclear capabilities. A third risk is the strengthening of Iranian and Turkish ties with both Russia and Chinaâprecisely what Trump has hoped to prevent.
Sicarii assassinations
The purpose of Trumpâs drone strike assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, and the presumed Trump green light for the assassination of Defense Ministry official Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November 2020, appears to be to goad Iran into taking actions that could rationalize an Israeli and/or US military response. Trump himself has purportedly advocated the option of bombing Iranâs Natanz nuclear facilityâgiven reports that Iranâs uranium stockpile is 12 times larger than permitted under the JCPOA accord that Trump unilaterally dumpedâbut he was apparently dissuaded by his closest advisors.
Thus far, Iran has vowed some form of military retaliation, but only at the appropriate moment. In the meantime, the Iranian parliament has passed a law demanding the enrichment of uranium to a 20 percent level and has threatened to prevent IAEA inspections of its nuclear energy facilities if US oil and banking sanctions against Iran are not soon lifted by the Biden administration. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has claimed that he opposes this parliamentary legislation as it prevents diplomatic flexibilityâbut the government is ostensibly obliged to act in accord with Iranian law.
The dilemma is that Trumpâs âmaximum pressureâ policy has strengthened Iranian hardliners, who have engaged in a severe repression, and who could win the June 2021 presidential elections once Rouhani steps down. In the meantime, the Iranian government will most likely look toward closer political, economic, energy and military ties with China and Russia as a bargaining chip to gain greater concessions from the US and EU.
Given Israeli opposition to Bidenâs proposed efforts to restore the JCPOA, Israel could opt to strike Iranâs nuclear facilities much as it struck Hamas in Gaza just before Obama came to power in January 2009 in the lame duck period. And if Congress permits the Trump administration to sell Israel bunker bombs and the F-22 Raptorâ in part as compensation for the US sale of the costly advanced F-35 fighter jet to the UAEâthen the option of Israeli military strikes on Iranâs presumed nuclear facilities becomes more plausible at a later date. So too does a general war in the region.
Trump: lighting a match to the Middle East powder keg?
Neither Moscow nor Beijing want Tehran to obtain nuclear weapons, but they do hope that Iran will help smother pan-Sunni âterroristâ movements that oppose Russian and Chinese interests throughout the wider Middle East, Central Asia, and in Xinjiang province. And with the Trump administration planning to withdraw forces from Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia and China will also seek to strengthen their ties with both the Iraqi and Afghan regimes.
The danger is that a full-scale Major Power War could soon become a Trump-fulfilled prophecyâin that the combined impact of NATO enlargement, followed by GWOT, the US pivot to the Indo-Pacific, and Trumpâs âPeace through Strengthâ doctrine, has begun to pit the US, NATO, EU, Japan, plus other US Allies in the Indo-Pacific and in the wider Middle East, against a burgeoning China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Eurasian Axis that seeks to weaken US alliances and attract new members.
In the effort to ameliorate tensions in a number of key regional âhot spotsâ and to prevent a full-scale Major Power War, the Biden administration will need to initiate a truly concerted global strategy that works closely with the Europeans, plus key regional powers, such as India and Japan, in seeking to draw Russia away from closer ties to Chinaâbut without alienating Beijing.
And in order to prevent the real possibilities of a China-Taiwan warâwhat has been called the âThucydides Trapââthe US will need implement a new truly concerted global strategy in working with the Europeans, Japan, India and Moscow that seeks to channel Chinaâs rise to major power statusâwhile bringing China and Taiwan into mutual respectâmuch as I argued in World War Trump.
Contrary to the Trump-Netanyahu doctrine, the Biden administration will need to revive the UN-backed JCPOA by working with the Europeans, Russia, China, as well as regional powers such as Turkeyâin the difficult effort to restore Iranian trust. Biden will also need to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia into direct negotiationsâand with Israel where possibleâin an effort to resolve their significant geo-political and energy disputes, while also seeking to engage in missile reduction talks for the entire region.
In late November, Trump ominously forewarned that âthere will be a lot of things happening between now and the 20th of Januaryâ. Let us hope that Trumpâs efforts to light a match to the Middle East powder keg will not be one of his lame duck surprises.
** This commentary was first published at Wall Street International on December 18, 2020.
* Professor and Chair, ICP Department, American University of Paris. Hall Gardner is the author of “World War Trump: The Risks of Americaâs New Nationalism” and a collection of poems, “The Wake-Up Blast.”
Disclaimer: Views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this commentary belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to Beyond the Horizon ISSG.
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