Scraping Surface of Rhetorics: An Assessment on Latest Developments in Syria

-Turkish Operation Peace Spring continues in full swing amid fierce criticism from international community and contradictory statements by different U.S. officials. However, there is no substance beyond ostentatious remarks or statements. Because, parties to the incursion benefit from this situation in one way or another. Noting there is no place for romanticism in the international relations, the reasons for these comments are as follows:

– President Trump fulfills his promise to bring back US soldiers from conflict zones that have no benefit to the Americans. In his own words, from “stupid endless wars” in the Middle East.

– Assad and Putin limit Kurdish territorial gains in the Northeastern Syria. Instead of using force after leveling Idlib, they will inherit control of the region from Turkish forces. Based on incursion, Kurds will consent to Assad’s terms. In the end, the regime will likely appear as the savior of the Kurds and re-consolidate its legitimacy within international community. – Russia enjoys testing limits of NATO when an Ally takes unilateral action much to the distaste of all other Allies, coming as a continuation to a full series of actions exhibiting slide of axis of the country towards East.

– The greatest beneficiary, Erdogan uses this incursion to:

a. Get rid of the biggest issue that decrease rate of votes he gets: Syrian refugees

b. Consolidate support (real or pretended) to his regime from electors and parliament by creating a rally-around-the flag effect through a war-like situation, a tactic that has served him well on multiple occasions so far.

c. Finds excuse / pretext to attribute reasons of economic failures to external powers’ sanctions, statements, threats. – The losers in this theatrical performance are the Kurds and the EU. The former is obvious reasons. The second is being sacrificed to a political game between Trump, Erdogan, Putin and Assad to bear the consequences of this act and Erdogan’s threats to allow millions of Syrian refugees pass to Europe, the greatest fear used by European politicians to show how clever they are and how well they manage the issue to ask for more votes.

– As Israel has great concerns over Iran’s role in the region, apparently Israeli interests and those of the US are not fully aligned in this initiative. Israel itself and its diaspora will likely increase pressure on the US to do more in Syria and increase its efforts to break the Iranian influence and expel Iranian proxies.