Background
- The Sahel region of Africa has the fastest growing population in the world. Poverty, food crisis, and armed conflict threaten the area as the number of refugees of internally displaced people reaches over 4.1 million.
- The conflict in Ukraine exacerbates the food crisis in the Sahel region. Russia recently held a Russia-Africa summit where Putin promised to give 6 countries from Africa free grain, to include Mali and Burkina Faso. This comes following Russia’s termination of the Black Sea grain deal, which provided 725,000 tons of grain to numerous countries. Russia’s offer of free grain for limited countries can be seen as an effort to capitalize on and to curry favor with an already unstable region. Following the French troops withdrawal from Mali, an estimated 1,000 Wagner PMC troops filled the void, furthering Moscow’s regional influence.
- In 2013, the French military launched Operation Serval to counter jihadist activity in Northern Mali. This operation evolved into the longer lasting Operation Barkhane in August of 2014, which ended in 2022. The impacts of the counter jihadist operations strike a familiarity with US-led counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. Both operations started with high rates of initial successes but resulted in long conflicts with local security forces unprepared to meet the challenge at hand. The withdrawal of French forces has resulted in instability in the region amidst increasing civilian casualties, with numbers nearly doubling from 2020 to 2021.
- In August 2020 and May 2021, Mali witnessed two military coups. The US and France have contributed with millions of dollars for counterterrorism efforts to Mali, which resulted in Mali’s military spending doubling from 2012 figures but other government functions remained weak. Aid from international actors must focus their support toward regional governance in order for Mali to stabilize.
- In January and later September of 2020, Burkina Faso was scene to two coups. Lt Col. Damiba held the first position of power, which was taken by Captain Ibrahim Traore later in 2022. Burkina Faso has spent nearly 80% of its 63 years of independence under military rule. There is a plan to transition to civilian power in 2024, but to ensure that the government stabilizes, focus needs to be given to local communities’ involvement in the decision-making process.
- On July 26, 2023, Niger experienced a coup. Since the original deadline of August 6 midnight to reinstate the democratically elected president has passed, leaders of ECOWAS have reconvened to discuss future actions in response to the coup in Niger. A decision was reached to deploy a standby force to the border of Niger if military action was to be pursued. Ivory Coast plans to commit about 850 – 1,100 troops to the force with Nigeria, Benin, and others contributing also. In defiance of ECOWAS, the military junta of Niger have created a new government with a prime minister and a military council.