Key Takeaways

Centralization of Leadership: The plenum underscored Xi Jinping’s unchallenged role as the “core” of the Party, cementing his personal vision and ideology as the foundation for all major policy directions.
Strategic Continuity: Rather than introducing radical reforms, the session emphasized stability and consistency — linking the 15th Five-Year Plan to the broader modernization goals for 2035.
High-Quality Development: Innovation, industrial upgrading, and technological self-reliance emerged as the central economic imperatives for the 2026–2030 period.
Security as a Development Pillar: The integration of economic growth and national security priorities signals a continued focus on resilience — from technology and supply chains to ideological and social stability.
Domestic Demand and Reform: The CPC is positioning domestic consumption and deepened reform as engines of sustainable growth, even as it maintains strict political oversight.
Environmental and Social Goals: The “Beautiful China” initiative and “common prosperity” agenda remain key pillars, reflecting efforts to balance modernization with equity and sustainability.
Party Discipline and Unity: Anti-corruption campaigns, cadre reshuffles, and the reaffirmation of ideological cohesion highlight the Party’s effort to maintain internal control and political legitimacy.

Introduction

In October 2025, the Communist Party of China (CPC) held the Fourth Plenary Session of its 20th Central Committee – a key political meeting often simply called the Fourth Plenum. This session was convened in Beijing from October 20 to 23, 2025, and its timing was highly significant. It came as China was completing its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) and drafting the blueprint for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The plenum’s central task was to review and adopt the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, effectively setting the tone and priorities for China’s development in the next half-decade. In the CPC’s governance calendar, such plenums in the year before a new five-year plan are crucial for medium-term policy planning. The importance of this meeting lay not in announcing drastic policy shifts, but in reaffirming a steady and pragmatic strategic vision that would help China navigate persistent economic headwinds and global uncertainties. By reinforcing continuity and stability, the Fourth Plenum underscored the CPC’s intent to maintain momentum in the world’s second-largest economy despite challenges at home and abroad.

Politically, the 2025 Fourth Plenum solidified President Xi Jinping’s central leadership role in shaping China’s future course. Xi, as General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, not only presided over the plenum’s proceedings but also delivered important addresses and a report on the work of the Political Bureau. In the lead-up to the plenum, Xi had personally guided the plan-drafting process – he chaired high-level meetings and even a special symposium in August 2025 to solicit input from non-CPC groups on the upcoming Five-Year Plan. This hands-on role underscored how closely Xi’s leadership is tied to China’s development agenda. The Fourth Plenum’s communiqué explicitly stressed “the decisive significance of establishing Comrade Xi Jinping’s core position” in the Party and upholding Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guiding ideology. In essence, the Party leadership sent a clear signal that Xi’s policy vision and authority remain the anchor of China’s direction. This affirmation of Xi’s core status – sometimes referred to as the “two establishes” – reflects the continued centralization of power around Xi and the Party’s ideological unity heading into the new planning period.

The session also carried significance as a bridge to long-term goals. The CPC has a stated objective of “basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035,” and it views the 14th, 15th, and 16th Five-Year Plan periods as sequential steps toward that goal. As the communiqué noted, the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will be a “critical” stage – a “key link between the past and the future” – for reinforcing foundations and pushing China forward on all fronts toward the 2035 vision. This places the 2025 plenum in a long-range context: decisions made here are not only about the next five years, but about paving the way to China’s mid-century ambitions. Holding the plenum at this juncture allowed the CPC leadership to assess progress on the concluding 14th Plan (which the communiqué says is on the verge of accomplishing its major goals) and to gear up for the next phase with a unified strategy.

Another crucial context for the Fourth Plenum was the political climate within the Party. The CPC had been carrying out intensive anti-corruption and discipline campaigns leading up to 2025, which resulted in unusual turnover in the Central Committee. Notably, only 168 of the 205 full Central Committee members attended the plenum – a sign that an “unprecedented proportion” of members had fallen into political trouble or been purged since the Committee was formed in 2022. High-profile absences and vacancies were linked to recent crackdowns on corruption and perceived disloyalty, reflecting how Xi’s drive to enforce Party discipline also reshapes the elite ranks. Indeed, during the plenum, the Central Committee filled several empty seats with alternate members and formalized leadership changes. One major personnel decision was the appointment of General Zhang Shengmin as a new vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, elevating him to China’s second-highest military post. Zhang replaced a general who had been ousted for corruption alongside other senior officers in the PLA – a stark reminder that loyalty and Party control over the military remain top priorities. These developments underscore the political significance of the plenum as not just an economic planning meeting, but a venue to reinforce Party unity and Xi’s dominance. The Fourth Plenum thus served to rally the Party elite around Xi’s leadership and the new policy blueprint, closing ranks after a period of internal adjustments.

Key Messages and Themes: Xi’s Leadership and Party Direction

The Plenum Communiqué issued on October 23, 2025 was a comprehensive 5,000-word document outlining the Central Committee’s assessment and outlook. Several key messages emerged from this communique, reflecting both ideological themes and policy priorities, all underpinned by Xi Jinping’s leadership role. First and foremost was a strong emphasis on Party leadership and unity. The communique declared that to govern the country well, the Party must govern itself well – “only a Party that is thriving can make our country strong”, it said. This reinforced the theme of party-building and discipline as foundational to all of China’s endeavors. The message is clear: the CPC will continue tightening its internal governance and ideological coherence, seeing that as essential for achieving national goals.

In line with that, the document reiterated absolute loyalty to Xi and his ideology. All Party members were urged to deeply understand the “decisive significance” of Xi’s core leadership and guiding thought. This kind of language, elevating Xi’s status, signals that any policy direction is inseparable from Xi’s personal vision. The “Two Establishes” (establishing Xi’s core position and his thought’s guiding role) have become a mantra in official rhetoric, and their inclusion in the communique highlights continuity with the outcomes of the 20th Party Congress (2022) that cemented Xi’s third term. Essentially, the Fourth Plenum portrayed Xi not just as the architect of the five-year plan, but as the unifying figure to whom the whole Party must rally in executing it.

Another prominent theme was resilience amid challenges. The communique struck a sober tone about China’s external and internal environment, noting that “strategic opportunities exist alongside risks and challenges, while uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising”. In fact, the language used was notably dramatic. President Xi’s favorite exhortation – “Dare to fight, and be good at fighting” – appeared in the text, and the document invoked imagery of turbulent times. “We must have the courage to face major tests amid high winds, rough waves and even raging storms,” the communique urged, calling for a spirit of initiative in tackling difficulties while “focusing on doing our own work well”. This vivid metaphor of “raging storms” signaled that China’s leadership is steeling itself for a rougher global climate, from economic headwinds to geopolitical friction. At the same time, the communique paired its warnings with declarations of confidence in China’s stability and growth prospects. The overall messaging was one of resolve and continuity: acknowledging serious challenges but asserting that the Party’s existing strategy is sound and will persevere.

The communique formally laid out a set of guiding principles and major objectives that encapsulate these themes. According to the communique, the guiding principles for China’s development during 2026–2030 will be: upholding the Party’s overall leadership, putting the people first, pursuing high-quality development, deepening reform, promoting an efficient market combined with a capable government, and ensuring both development and security.

These six principles intertwine political and economic aims – for instance, the insistence on Party leadership and people-centered development stresses that the CPC will continue to direct the economy with claims of benefiting the populace, while the pairing of market and government roles suggests continued economic reforms but under firm state guidance. The inclusion of security as a principle alongside development is especially noteworthy; it indicates that issues like technology self-reliance, food/energy security, and even ideological security will influence economic decisions more than ever, a trend sharpened by recent external pressures.

From these principles flow the major objectives the Party has set for the 15th Five-Year Plan. The Fourth Plenum’s communique enumerated several high-level goals for 2026–2030, including: achieving “significant advancements in high-quality development”, making “substantial improvements in scientific and technological self-reliance and strength”, attaining new breakthroughs in comprehensive reform, elevating societal cultural and ethical progress, raising living standards and quality of life, making major strides in environmental protection through the “Beautiful China” initiative, and further strengthening the national security shield. This broad list covers economic, social, and security dimensions, indicating a holistic approach. Notably, technology self-reliance is highlighted among the top objectives, mirroring the leadership’s concern with overcoming foreign tech restrictions and developing indigenous innovation. Likewise, the emphasis on national security – alongside traditional economic and social targets – reveals the Party’s heightened focus on security in everything from cyberspace to supply chains and defense. Xi Jinping’s leadership is often characterized by this fusion of development and security imperatives, and the plenum’s key goals reflect that fusion.

Shaping the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030)

The Fourth Plenum had a direct hand in formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan, making the meeting a pivotal step in China’s planning cycle. In CPC practice, the Central Committee at a plenum approves a draft of the FYP “Recommendations,” which then guides the actual plan document to be finalized by the government and formally approved by the National People’s Congress (typically in March of the plan’s start year). True to form, the 20th Central Committee’s Fourth Plenum concluded with the adoption of the “Recommendations of the CPC Central Committee for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development”. This document will shape the ultimate 15th FYP (2026–2030), and the communique’s content gives a preview of the plan’s focus.

The direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan as shaped by the plenum can be seen in several major themes:

Continuity with Strategic Goals: The plan is conceived as part of the long march toward 2035 modernization. Jiang Jinquan, head of the CPC Policy Research Office, emphasized that the 15th FYP period will “consolidate the foundation and push ahead on all fronts” toward basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035. In other words, the new plan is not starting a fresh agenda but rather building on the 14th FYP’s achievements and tackling remaining gaps. Officials described the plenum’s Recommendations as a “programmatic document” with clear goals, precise guidance, and pragmatic measures, meant to mobilize the whole Party and country toward the modernization drive.
High-Quality Development & Innovation: As expected, the plan’s core economic theme is improving quality and innovation in growth. The communique and subsequent briefings made it clear that China will pursue advancements in science and technology and build a “modernized industrial system” in the coming five years. This means heavy emphasis on innovation-driven industries – from semiconductors to electric vehicles, biotech, artificial intelligence, and other “new quality productive forces” that Beijing sees as key to future competitiveness. The context here is China’s push to overcome technological bottlenecks and climb the value chain. We can expect the 15th FYP to set specific targets and initiatives for R&D spending, talent development, and perhaps large national projects in strategic tech sectors.
Economic Security and Self-Reliance: The plan is being drafted with a strong undercurrent of ensuring China’s economic security. This entails reducing vulnerabilities to external shocks and coercion. For example, the communique called for strengthening the “national security shield” in development. In practical terms, this will likely translate to policies supporting domestic supply chains for critical goods (from food and energy to microchips) and protecting the financial system. The Plenum’s messaging about “doing our own work well” and handling “raging storms” implies the 15th FYP will continue policies like the “dual circulation” strategy – bolstering the domestic economy (internal circulation) while selectively engaging internationally (external circulation). Indeed, the recommendations stress building a robust domestic market and fostering a new development pattern, which echo the dual circulation concept.
Boosting Domestic Demand and Consumption: A major priority shaped by the plenum is expanding domestic consumption and demand as engines of growth. This comes against the backdrop of a property market downturn and sluggish consumer sentiment in 2024–2025 that have weighed on China’s post-pandemic recovery. The communique highlighted the “strategic need to expand domestic demand”. Officials like NDRC chief Zheng Shanjie stressed that major economies are driven by domestic demand and that China’s own market is a tremendous asset to leverageen.people.cn. Accordingly, the 15th FYP will put greater weight on stimulating consumption, services, and new urbanization. We can expect policies encouraging urban household spending, such as improving social safety nets (to reduce precautionary saving), subsidies for consumer goods (as already seen with electric cars and appliances), and investments in service sectors. The aim is two-fold: to make growth less dependent on exports and debt-fueled construction, and to meet people’s needs for better quality of life – aligning with the “people-centered development” principle.
Continued Reform and Opening-Up: The plenum reinforced that China will “comprehensively deepen reform” during the 15th FYP, indicating that economic reforms will continue, albeit under Party guidance. Areas of likely focus include financial sector reforms, state-owned enterprise efficiency, and improvements to the business environment. The communique also spoke of promoting “high-standard opening up” and mutually beneficial cooperation with the world. This suggests the plan will not be about isolation; rather, China will seek foreign investment and trade, but on its own terms. For instance, we may see new free trade zones, further liberalization in sectors like finance or healthcare for foreign firms, and active participation in international trade agreements (like expanding the Belt and Road Initiative and regional trade pacts).
Green Development and Social Goals: Like its predecessor, the 15th Plan will feature goals for environmental protection and social welfare. The plenum listed advancing the “Beautiful China” initiative (which covers climate and environmental targets) as a major objective. We can expect continued focus on renewable energy, emissions reduction (building on China’s 2030/2060 carbon targets), and conservation projects. Socially, improving public well-being – such as healthcare, education, and housing – and promoting “common prosperity for all” were noted as key tasks. That means the plan will likely include measures on social security, rural development (building on the rural revitalization strategy), and narrowing regional and urban-rural disparities. Cultural and ethical progress was also mentioned, reflecting the Party’s intention to strengthen soft power and perhaps ideological education in society during the plan period.

In shaping the plan’s content, the Fourth Plenum thus ensured that the draft blueprint aligns closely with Xi Jinping’s strategic priorities: economic modernization through innovation, domestic resilience, sustainable development, and a strong national security posture, all under Party oversight. Notably, the plenum did not herald any dramatic policy departures or liberalizations. Instead, it codified an approach of refining and intensifying existing policies. By adopting the Recommendations, the Central Committee effectively set the agenda that the Chinese government will implement in the 2026–2030 period. The upcoming Five-Year Plan is expected to be unveiled in detail at the National People’s Congress in early 2026, but thanks to the Fourth Plenum we already know its broad strokes. It will be a plan characterized by policy continuity with adaptive tweaks – a roadmap to keep China on track toward its 2035 goals, with Xi Jinping’s imprint clearly visible on every page.

Conclusion

The Fourth Plenum of 2025 stands as a pivotal moment of reaffirmation rather than reinvention in China’s political and developmental trajectory. Convened at the close of the 14th Five-Year Plan and on the eve of the 15th, it crystallized the Party’s commitment to stability, continuity, and ideological coherence under Xi Jinping’s leadership. Rather than charting a new course, the meeting reinforced a disciplined and deliberate approach — one that privileges institutional control, strategic patience, and policy consistency over short-term experimentation.

In substance, the plenum reflected confidence that the current governance model — centralization under Xi’s “core” leadership, guided by the fusion of development and security imperatives — remains the optimal framework for navigating the uncertainties of the next decade. The leadership’s emphasis on resilience amid “raging storms” captures a clear sense of China’s political mood in late 2025: the recognition of persistent headwinds, coupled with a deep conviction that steady, state-led advancement will ensure national rejuvenation.

The Fourth Plenum’s outcomes are therefore best understood as a consolidation of power and purpose. It reaffirmed the Party’s monopoly on political authority, tied China’s future even more closely to Xi Jinping Thought, and positioned the 15th Five-Year Plan as the operational roadmap for achieving the 2035 modernization goal. Through this meeting, the CPC signaled both domestically and internationally that it remains unified, confident, and strategically focused on strengthening China’s comprehensive national power — not through disruptive change, but through methodical progression anchored in political stability, technological upgrading, and social control.

Ultimately, the 2025 plenum will be remembered less for unveiling new policies than for institutionalizing a vision — a vision that links China’s near-term priorities with its long-range aspirations for 2035 and beyond. It confirmed that, in Xi’s China, political authority and development strategy are inseparable, and that the Party’s path to modernization will continue to run through the firm guidance of its central leadership.