Executive Summary
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has entered a dangerous new phase, raising the possibility of a regional war in the Middle East. This escalation, rooted in longstanding regional power struggles, has been significantly fueled by Hezbollah’s increasing involvement in the Israel-Hamas confrontation and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in 2024. The escalation has been further intensified by Israel’s recent assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, signaling a dangerous turn in the conflict. Hezbollah’s pledge to continue its resistance against Israel amid regional condemnations raises fears of an inevitable broader war. This policy brief explores the conflict’s evolving dynamics, the key actors’ strategic objectives, and the potential consequences for regional stability. With the involvement of global powers such as the United States, Iran, and China, the conflict risks spiraling into a broader geopolitical crisis. We present an in-depth analysis of the military, diplomatic, and humanitarian dimensions of the conflict and provide recommendations for mitigating the risks of a wider war.
Background
The roots of the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict can be traced to October 7, 2022, when Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, triggering the most intense violence in the region since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. Hamas coordinated this attack with rocket strikes and armed incursions into Israeli territory. Israel’s swift and overwhelming military response targeted Hamas infrastructure, killing key operatives and severely damaging civilian infrastructure in Gaza.
However, the conflict quickly expanded beyond Gaza, began launching rocket attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. As an ally of Hamas and a key player in the “Axis of Resistance” alongside Iran and Syria, Hezbollah’s involvement marked the regionalization of the conflict.
The situation further escalated on July 31, 2024, when Israeli operatives assassinated Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran. This assassination significantly heightened tensions between Israel, Hezbollah, and their backer, Iran. Hezbollah’s response was swift and severe, intensifying rocket attacks and military operations against Israel. In retaliation, Israel launched a series of high-precision strikes aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s command structure, with the September 2024 pager and radio attacks being among the most notable. These operations, conducted by Israeli intelligence, crippled Hezbollah’s communications networks and killed several high-ranking commanders.
The conflict now stands at a critical juncture, with both sides entrenched in their positions and unwilling to de-escalate. The humanitarian toll in Lebanon, already struggling with economic and political crises, is catastrophic. In southern Lebanon, thousands of civilians have been displaced by Israeli airstrikes, adding to the existing pressure on Lebanon’s fragile infrastructure.
Key Developments
The Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh
Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran by Israeli operatives on July 31, 2024, marked a pivotal moment in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Haniyeh had long been a central figure in the Palestinian resistance, and his killing was seen as a direct challenge to both Hamas and its backers in Hezbollah and Iran. Hezbollah, which had already been involved in rocket attacks against Israel in solidarity with Hamas, dramatically escalated its military campaign following the assassination.
Israeli Preemptive Strikes
In response to Hezbollah’s escalations, Israel shifted its strategy toward preemptive strikes aimed at crippling Hezbollah’s military and communication infrastructure. The most notable of these strikes occurred in September 2024, when Israeli forces used advanced intelligence to execute pager and radio attacks that decimated Hezbollah’s communications networks. These strikes, while successful in killing senior Hezbollah operatives, have done little to deter Hezbollah from continuing its rocket campaign against northern Israel.
Israel’s broader strategy focuses on weakening Hezbollah’s missile and rocket capabilities, with the ultimate goal of preventing a future ground invasion by Hezbollah into Israeli territory. To achieve this, Israel has relied heavily on airstrikes and intelligence-led operations rather than committing ground forces, which could lead to a broader and more costly war.
Hezbollah’s Response and Iran’s Involvement
Hezbollah, under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, has maintained its firm stance against Israel, aligning its operations with Iranian strategic objectives. Iran views Hezbollah as a critical asset in its broader campaign to challenge Israel and U.S. influence in the region. Hezbollah’s ability to launch rockets into northern Israel, despite Israeli airstrikes, underscores its resilience and the significant backing it receives from Tehran.
Iran’s support for Hezbollah includes financial aid, military training, and advanced weaponry. Through Hezbollah, Iran can project power in the Levant without direct military confrontation with Israel, which would carry far greater risks. Following the assassination of both Ismail Haniyeh and, more recently, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah has vowed to escalate its operations against Israel. Nasrallah’s death marks the loss of a key figure in Hezbollah’s leadership, prompting concerns that the group may seek more aggressive retaliation, with heightened involvement from Iran. There were reports that Hezbollah sought more direct Iranian involvement in the conflict. Although Iran has so far refrained from direct military engagement, Nasrallah’s assassination might push Tehran to increase its backing of Hezbollah through financial, military, and strategic means.
The Assassination of Hassan Nasrallah
On September 27, 2024, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed by an Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut. Nasrallah, a longtime symbol of Hezbollah’s resistance against Israel, was targeted as part of Israel’s broader strategy to degrade Hezbollah’s leadership structure. Hezbollah confirmed his death and vowed to continue the fight against Israel, which has increased the risk of a wider regional war.
Nasrallah’s assassination has deepened fears of Iranian intervention, as Iran, Hezbollah’s key backer, condemned the killing and pledged support for Hezbollah. This development adds a critical new dimension to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, given Nasrallah’s central role in maintaining Hezbollah’s military and ideological unity.
Strategic Objectives of the Key Actors
Israel’s Strategic Objectives
Israel’s primary objective in the ongoing conflict is to neutralize Hezbollah’s missile and rocket capabilities to safeguard its northern cities and towns. The Israeli military’s strategy has evolved to focus on precision airstrikes and intelligence-driven operations, as seen in the September 2024 strikes, to degrade Hezbollah’s command-and-control networks. However, Israel is also wary of being drawn into a full-scale ground war, which could have devastating consequences for both Israel and Lebanon.
Beyond immediate military goals, Israel’s broader strategy includes preventing Iran from consolidating its influence in Lebanon. Israeli policymakers view Hezbollah as an extension of Iranian power in the region, and Israel’s military operations in Lebanon and Syria are part of a larger effort to curb Tehran’s influence. Israel frequently conducts airstrikes against Iranian military assets in Syria as part of this overarching strategy.
Hezbollah’s Strategic Calculus
For Hezbollah, involvement in the conflict with Israel serves multiple strategic purposes. First, it reinforces Hezbollah’s position as a defender of the Palestinian cause and as a central player in the “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and Western powers. Second, it allows Hezbollah to solidify its legitimacy domestically and regionally by portraying itself as a key force resisting Israeli aggression.
Moreover, Hezbollah’s military actions are closely tied to Iran’s broader regional strategy. By engaging Israel in military conflict, Hezbollah helps Iran maintain a deterrent against Israeli and U.S. actions in the region. Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, which includes long-range rockets capable of striking deep into Israeli territory, serves as a key deterrent against Israeli ground invasions.
Iran’s Role and Strategic Interests
Iran’s role in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is critical, as Tehran views Hezbollah as one of its most valuable proxies in the region. Through Hezbollah, Iran can challenge Israeli and U.S. influence in the Levant without risking direct military engagement. Iran’s financial and military support for Hezbollah ensures that the group remains a potent force capable of resisting Israeli military operations.
However, Iran’s involvement in the conflict is also shaped by its broader geopolitical ambitions and the risks of direct confrontation with Israel. Following the assassination of Haniyeh, Iran refrained from escalating its military support for Hezbollah, signaling its desire to avoid a broader regional war that could involve the United States. This restraint likely reflects Iran’s focus on consolidating its influence in Syria and ensuring stability at home amid economic challenges.
Regional and International Responses
United States: Balancing Support and Restraint
The United States, as Israel’s key ally, has played a central role in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Washington has consistently affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself while also urging restraint to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a broader regional war. In a show of support for Israel, the U.S. deployed two Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) to the south of the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, signaling its commitment to deterring Iranian involvement in the conflict.
However, the Biden administration has also sought to balance its military support for Israel with diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. U.S. officials, including President Biden, have engaged in diplomatic outreach with regional actors such as Egypt and Qatar, in an attempt to broker a ceasefire. The United States faces significant challenges in balancing its support for Israel with its broader goal of preventing a wider conflict, especially given the hardline approach of Israel’s current government.
China: Growing Diplomatic Role in the Middle East
China’s role in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict reflects its broader strategic interests in the Middle East. While China has traditionally maintained a neutral stance in regional conflicts, its growing economic interests in the region, particularly in securing energy supplies, have prompted Beijing to adopt a more active diplomatic role. During the current crisis, China has expressed firm opposition to Israel’s airstrikes against civilians in Lebanon and has called for a ceasefire.
China’s broader strategic interest in the conflict stems from its desire to maintain stability in the Middle East, a region critical to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Any escalation that threatens regional stability poses a direct challenge to China’s economic interests, particularly its energy supply chains. As a result, China has sought to position itself as a mediator, advocating for dialogue and diplomatic solutions.
European Union and Lebanon: Calls for Restraint and Humanitarian Aid
The European Union and Lebanon have both called for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, with a particular focus on addressing the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes have devastated southern Lebanon, displacing tens of thousands of civilians and causing significant damage to infrastructure. Lebanon’s already fragile state, which has been grappling with economic and political instability, is struggling to cope with the influx of displaced civilians.
The European Union has expressed deep concern over the humanitarian impact of the conflict and has called for international efforts to provide humanitarian aid to Lebanon. However, the EU’s influence on the conflict remains limited, as the entrenched positions of both Israel and Hezbollah, along with the involvement of external actors like Iran, complicate peace efforts.
Humanitarian Crisis and Regional Repercussions
Lebanon’s Economic and Political Instability
The humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, resulting from Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah’s military activities, has severely exacerbated the country’s ongoing economic and political crises. Lebanon’s healthcare system is overwhelmed, and its already fragile infrastructure is struggling to cope with the growing number of displaced civilians. The conflict has also deepened Lebanon’s political instability, with the country’s government unable to provide adequate services to its population.
The ongoing violence threatens to push Lebanon closer to collapse, creating conditions for a new refugee crisis that could have regional and global repercussions. Neighboring countries, particularly Jordan and Turkey, are concerned about potential spillovers from the conflict, including the influx of refugees and the spread of sectarian violence.
Regional Implications and the Risk of a Broader War
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict has broader regional implications, particularly in terms of its potential to trigger a wider war involving Iran, the United States, and other regional actors. Iran’s involvement in the conflict, through its support for Hezbollah, is a key factor that could lead to further escalation. Should Iran decide to directly intervene in the conflict, either by providing more military support to Hezbollah or through its other regional proxies, the risk of a regional war would increase significantly.
The involvement of external powers, such as the United States and China, further complicates the situation. While both powers have called for restraint and have sought to prevent a broader conflict, their competing strategic interests in the region raise the risk of miscalculation. Any misstep by either side could lead to a wider confrontation, with devastating consequences for the Middle East.
Conclusion and Recommendations
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah poses a significant threat to regional stability and international security. While Israel has achieved tactical successes through its airstrikes and intelligence-led operations, the conflict’s broader strategic dimensions—particularly Hezbollah’s deep ties to Iran—make a decisive military victory unlikely. The entrenched positions of both sides, combined with the involvement of external actors, suggest that the conflict is unlikely to end in the near future.
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah has added a critical and destabilizing element to the conflict. The potential for further retaliation from Hezbollah, with support from Iran, increases the likelihood of the conflict spiraling into a full-scale regional war. As such, urgent diplomatic initiatives involving regional and global powers are required to prevent the situation from deteriorating further.
A comprehensive political solution is needed to address the underlying causes of the conflict, particularly Iran’s role in supporting Hezbollah and its broader regional ambitions. A diplomatic initiative, involving key international and regional actors, is essential to de-escalate the situation and prevent further violence. This initiative should focus on achieving a ceasefire, providing humanitarian aid to Lebanon, and addressing the geopolitical and ideological divides that fuel the conflict.
Immediate Actions:
Call for an immediate ceasefire: Regional and international actors, including the United States, China, and the European Union, should intensify diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
Humanitarian assistance: The international community should prioritize humanitarian aid to Lebanon, with a focus on providing support to displaced civilians and rebuilding essential infrastructure.
Long-Term Strategy:
Engage Iran in regional security talks: To address the root causes of the conflict, the international community should seek to engage Iran in a broader dialogue on regional security. This dialogue should aim to limit Iran’s military support for Hezbollah and address its broader regional ambitions.
Strengthen diplomatic efforts: The United States, China, and the European Union should work together to strengthen diplomatic channels between Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah, with the goal of reducing the risk of further escalation and achieving a sustainable peace settlement.
In conclusion, while the Israel-Hezbollah conflict remains entrenched, a concerted effort by regional and global powers could help prevent the conflict from escalating into a full-scale regional war. Only through a combination of military restraint, diplomatic engagement, and humanitarian intervention can a lasting resolution to the conflict be achieved.
