The hardest question for a person following Yemen file would be to propose a way out of the crisis. As more reports suggest, mechanisms or initiatives tailored as partial / comprehensive response to the crisis fail constantly due to unwillingness, corruption or uncompromising behavior of the actors. As the war persists, it leaves deeper marks in the social, political and economical livelihood of the nation. Measures developed for temporary deficiencies become robust and rooted. So finding a solution to a problem depending on same personalities and same settings that gave rise to it initially is a hard task with dubious prospects for success. Perfection and well argumentation in any plan is not enough. The plan should be comprehensive and should give incentives to all stakeholders.
Stockholm Agreement which had initially formed a departure point for exchange of prisoners more than two years ago could only be agreed upon this weekend. That’s to say, decision on a general concept or principle became possible after two years. The implementation is yet to be seen. The fate of Riyadh Agreement is not so different. The sides, although compromising on the negotiation table, are not willing to give away an inch due to distrust. A movement of unit that has potential to change balance of power in a given district faces strong reaction. If this distrust between sides and against Saudi Arabia cannot be overcome, the days of the agreement can be said to be numbered.
- Political Situation – 95%
- Humanitarian Situation – 80%
- BM Usage – 60%
- Armed Conflict – 70%