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Assessment

Syrian Regime not only brought the M5 highway under control but also captured the remaining parts of Aleppo and opened the highway to the North. Next step will highly likely to clean the M4 highway from rebels to reconnect Aleppo with the coastal line. With the opening of the Aleppo airport, Syrian Regime will consolidate its control in the North and will speed up its preparations for further steps, especially for the control of Turkish controlled  areas.    

Erdogan has no option but to withdraw Turkish Forces from Idlib unless he reaches an agreement with Russia at any cost. Syrian Regime forces advancing fast both from South and North might soon get the full control of Idlib from Jihadis/Rebels.

  • Political Situation – 70%
  • Humanitarian Situation – 90%
  • WMD Usage – 60%
  • Armed Conflict -80%

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