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Assessment

With the latest ceasefire, Turkey clearly lost her initiative almost completely and had to accept all the conditions imposed by Russia. Syrian Regime not only consolidated its presence in the captured areas but also put its achievements against Turkey. With the decision to start Russian-Turkish patrolling through M4 highway, Turkey will probably handover the area to Russia gradually, thus to Syrian Regime eventually, and withdraw from the region in the near future.

Erdogan’s visit to Brussels, right after a meeting with Putin, is a clear manifest that he needs support both politically and economically. However, his early departure from the EU premisses manifests that he had little. His recent move in encouraging and even mobilising refugees to Greek border, seemed to frustrate European leaders.

Erdogan’s new proposal to rebuild Syria with oil revenues is unacceptable to any party but Turkey. Yet, it seems to be the only way out for Erdogan to compensate his losses during the Syrian war and keep Turkish economy afloat which is heavily depended on construction sector handled by his close circle.

  • Political Situation – 70%
  • Humanitarian Situation – 90%
  • WMD Usage – 60%
  • Armed Conflict -100%

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