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Assessment

United Nations Security Council endorsement of the conclusions of the Berlin Conference and requesting full compliance of the member states to the arms embargo was the most crucial development of the last week. Technically speaking, demanding full compliance from member states to a UN Security Council Resolution (Libya arms embargo) through issuing a new resolution is redundant; one resolution should have been enough for the implementation. Evidently, Libya case constitutes one of a new kind of UNSC resolution: ‘toothless resolution’; or as the deputy head of UNSMIL, Stephane Williams said “a joke”.


During Munich Security Conference, international stakeholders in the Libya War came together and reaffirmed their commitment to the Berlin process and UN Security Council resolutions including an arms embargo. One should admire the sense of mission of those politicians in Munich, reaching a consensus on complying with the arms embargo, together with the blatant violators of the very same embargo. Within timeframe following the Berlin Conference, external actors boosted the amount of the arms and foreign fighters pouring into Libya. The failure of the international community, both during and in the aftermath of the Berlin Conference, to take a clear stance against the violators of the UN Security Council resolutions and to take action to deter them is the main reason of the deteriorating military situation in the country.


 Syrian mercenaries are incorporated to the thousands of those from Sudan, Chad or Russia. According to sources around 6.000 has been added/being added to GNA fronts. It is also claimed this week that Russia has started recruiting Syrian groups to fight on the side of Eastern Libya forces. Both warring Libyan parties increasingly prefer to use foreign fighters to fight instead of Libyans. For Haftar, these foreigners are also essential to fill in the gap stemming from the reluctance of the eastern Libya tribes to fight/die in western Libya.


 Due to increasing warring capabilities of the Libyan factions, the current fragmented form of Libya might persist to preclude a united Libya permanently. Moreover, such a divided Libya might be the preference of some international meddlers, rather than losing all their benefits from Libya.  Meanwhile, the oil blockade in the country is still ongoing and sufferings of the Libyan people mount up. The observations of the head of the International Committee of Red Cross concerning horrible health facilities and schools, chronic fear of war and uncertainty, demonstrates the challenges of the daily life of the Libyan people. They are the real losers of the ongoing conflict.

  • Political Situation – 80%
  • Humanitarian Situation – 60%
  • Energy Security – 70%
  • Armed Conflict – 85%

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