- Although it is an important milestone and a prerequisite to have a negotiation team, a 21-member negotiation team hardly works effectively towards a lasting peace. Such a large negotiation team – looks like almost a cabinet – will create further frustration and reaction. Such an attitude, particularly from the party who has the lower hand, might not be tolerated both by the US and the International Community. The Taliban can also refuse to negotiate with such a multi-stakeholder negotiation armada.
- Prisoner swap is another concern. The Taliban has got the US guarantee for the release of its 5,000 members from the prison and will never accept anything short of it. In this respect, government proposal concerning the release of 100 Taliban affiliates will not be perceived as a serious offer. COVID-19 pandemic offers the Afghan government an appropriate excuse for saving face as well as an exceptional opportunity to build trust.
- The failure of building inclusive government attempts cost the Afghan Government $1 bn for the fiscal year 2021. The US has plenty of instruments “to convince” Ghani and Abdullah to a “Kerry-style” solution and it has just used the softest one. However, when it comes to Afghanistan, carrot and stick diplomacy has its limits. Regional actors will do their best to exploit the current situation.
- ISKP attack against Sikh minority is probably a reaction against Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) tensions in India. In the coming days, if the peace process succeeds, ISKP will create more violence to fill the gap. The Taliban might see the rise of ISKP as an opportunity by using its confrontation to them for more legitimacy.
- If the government fails to take immediate measures for preventing the spread of coronavirus in Afghanistan, statistics show that the losses might be unprecedented.
Political Situation -85%
ARMED CONFLICT – 50%
Humanitarian Situation – 90%