Although it is short of a ceasefire or a peace deal, ‘agreement to a proposal for a reduction in violence’ is nevertheless a step forward towards peace. Degree of success in its implementation will tell us how optimistic we can look to the future in Afghanistan. A reduction can be observed in casualty figures, but the current state of armed conflict is definitely not a ceasefire. On the contrary, USAF war efforts to bring the insurgency to the negotiation table is at historical high. The record of wasted opportunities and deteriorating political and military indicators show that there remains a long way towards peace in Afghanistan.
Partial recount of the presidential elections votes will highly unlikely change the overall political picture in Afghanistan. The Munich Security Conference showed that Ghani doesn’t have legitimacy problems, at least at the international arena. However, Ghani will likely offer some power to his political rivals as he did 5 years ago in order to remain united and powerful against the Taliban at the upcoming peace talks.
- Political Situation -85%
- ARMED CONFLICT – 90%
- Humanitarian Situation – 90%
- Corruption- 70%